The big question approaching today’s French Grand Prix is what can Lewis Hamilton achieve from his 13th place grid position after his 10-place penalty has been applied? He’s publicly targeting a top-five finish and, barring unusual circumstances, he’s not going to win, so it’s a question of damage limitation. This track has never yielded a victor outside of the top four on the grid.

Given that he is right in the thick of a championship contest, what Hamilton needs above all else is to leave Magny-Cours this evening with a useful helping of points. There are going to be times during this afternoon’s race where he’s going to be tempted into 50-50 moves, but he’d be wise to control his natural racing urge. Points gained in difficult circumstances could make all the difference at the end of the season, as Hamilton knows to his great cost from last season.

The penalty is for his accident in the Montreal pit lane at the previous race, where he eliminated himself, along with the Ferrari of championship rival Kimi Raikkonen. From the outside it looked crazy and more than just a little amateurish. There were two stationary F1 cars sitting side by side at the high and clear red light – how could Hamilton not see them? A motorist approaching a junction with stationary cars would expect to be able to stop, why not one of the world’s best drivers? The critical difference is you that expect this on the road, yet in a race the only time you’re expecting to be stationary is at your scheduled pit stops. Drivers receive a lot of instructions from their teams at this critical moment of a race, altering settings on the steering wheel and taking the opportunity to make minor comfort adjustments, like tightening seatbelts. From an F1 cockpit you tend not to be looking directly in front of you, but at references much further ahead or at 30 degrees off to each side. It is quite easy to make elementary errors, especially buried deep in the latest safety cells.

Having said that, it was still essentially Hamilton’s fault, and the penalty is deserved. In Monaco, Raikkonen rear-ended Adrian Sutil, taking him out the race, but was not penalised. It was adjudged that at 180mph in a difficult situation it was more excusable than in the pit lane at 50mph.

So how can McLaren help Hamilton today? There were two options – a light or heavy fuel load, and each had its merits. They appear to have decided on a relatively low fuel to supply him with a lightweight rocketship with which he can overtake people from his 13th starting position, but at the expense of a third pit stop. Fernando Alonso for Renault and Toyota’s Jarno Trulli were fast enough to negate the heavy fuel option for Hamilton that would have seen him starting 15th. Lewis apologised to his team for making two consecutive errors on the same corner costing him 0.3sec, seemingly confirming that he is lighter on fuel.

McLaren might well also consider using their other driver, Heikki Kovalainen, strategically such that he could bring of some of those places more into Hamilton’s reach. It’s another matter whether Kovalainen would be willing to play this game but without doubt his contract will provide for following team instructions.

Magny-Cours is all about tyres, specifically the left-front, which gets a real hammering because of the long, fast right-hander, Estoril, which forms turns two and three. Ideally you want to keep the load off that tyre as much as possible, and so Hamilton could do with a car that’s neutral or even oversteering by letting the rear tyre slide to share some of the pain.

Strong exit speed from this corner is carried with constant acceleration down the back straight to the Adelaide hairpin, the circuit’s prime passing place, helped by the fact that there is grip on both sides of the track as the drivers brake from 190mph down to 45mph in just 300 feet. As ever, the first lap will be Hamilton’s chance to catch the others being too cautious here.

Hamilton’s supreme ability and finesse on the brake pedal can be a very useful weapon in his quest to overtake. Although it wasn’t in evidence in the Montreal pit lane, out on track he has an ability to modulate the pressure on the unassisted brake pedal, keeping the front wheels just shy of locking up even as the downforce upon the car is bleeding off with the reduction in speed.

After the hairpin is the 155mph Nurburgring chicane which, with its easy kerbs and hard-standing run-off, allows you to pick any line you want, and there’s little possibility of passing.

Then it’s into the frustrating turn eight, a 180-degree corner with a sweeping entry but tightening exit. If you get a good run out of here, it is just about possible to go side-by-side with someone into the super-fast Imola chicane. This wasn’t previously considered a passing place until Alonso changed this view with a brave pass here on Nick Heidfeld last year.

A better bet would be into Chateau d'Eau, the slow right-hander that follows. I’ve passed people there, firing the car up the inside and basically preventing an opponent from turning in. However, it requires them to have seen you because there is a lot going on, sweeping from one side of the track to the other and with a heavy braking zone.

From there it’s a downhill run through a left sweep into the braking zone for turn 15, known as the Lycee Pin. Rubens Barrichello caught Trulli napping there on the last lap a few years ago and took third place from him. The sweeping, 170mph downhill left-handed approach to the Lycee can complicate any attempted passing manoeuvre. To succeed, a move must be decisive before the 70mph turn in, but fortunately there is plenty of room to recover and rejoin the track if it doesn’t work out.

To achieve the result he wants today, Hamilton has got to get punchy and aggressive in the first half a lap and then pick them off calmly and methodically one at a time with a maturity beyond his 23 years. He must resist the temptation of going for half-chance manoeuvres; there are a lot of hungry and determined drivers out there looking for solid mid-season results who don’t care at all about Lewis Hamilton’s dream of a drivers’ world championship and they’ll not be an easy touch. They’ll run him out of road in a heartbeat given half a chance.