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The crisis in the Caucasus is deteriorating fast. European governments may have hoped that the ceasefire negotiated two days after Russia invaded Georgia would eventually stick. US politicians, perhaps distracted by the domestic convention season, may have assumed that Russia would content itself with de facto control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Not so.
President Medvedev's recognition of the two provinces' independence claims is as provocative as the original invasion. His willingness to contemplate a new Cold War is reckless and self-defeating. As evidence emerges of continued “ethnic cleansing” by South Ossetian paramilitaries, relations between Russia and the West are more fraught with danger than at any time since 1991.
Against this background David Miliband flew to Kiev yesterday to reassure Ukraine that Britain supported its “democratic choices”, whatever Moscow might make of them. He also said that Russia was “more isolated, less trusted and less respected” than before invading Georgia.
This is true. Western governments were united in their condemnation of Moscow's recognition of the two breakaway regions. The only other country likely to recognise them is Belarus, effectively a Russian vassal state already. And in a sign of things to come, Russia was pointedly left out of a conference call between G7 foreign ministers. The G8 to which Vladimir Putin was so proud to belong is shrinking already.
But Russia is still delighted with the way that the crisis has unfolded. In practical terms, the price of the isolation that the West threatens for Moscow's flagrant violation of international borders, laws and norms has so far been negligible. This will remain the case as long as Mr Miliband and his counterparts talk about Nato membership for Georgia and Ukraine but not about concrete steps towards it. The price of Russia's isolation must therefore be raised.
From the Kodori Gorge that forms Abkhazia's natural frontier with the rest of Georgia, to the new “peacekeeping” posts established by Russian troops a short drive from Tbilisi, Moscow holds a formidable tactical advantage. Its 58th Army has destroyed most of Georgia's military infrastructure. It can continue to hit what remains and to seal off its newly captured territories from journalists with little fear of military reprisals.
This is the reality that has emboldened General Anatoli Nogovitsyn to caution that any attack on Abkhazia or South Ossetia would constitute a declaration of war on Russia. Mr Medvedev has hardly been more temperate. He has threatened military retaliation against Poland and the Czech Republic for agreeing to host US anti-missile defences, and repeatedly declared that he was not afraid of a return to the Cold War.
But he should be. Like his predecessor, Mr Medvedev is fond of saying that there were no winners in the original Cold War. He is wrong. Russia lost that conflict, and with it an empire. Its economy has recovered spectacularly, but its leaders are wilfully blind to the risks of trying to reassert its regional hegemony by force.
Russia's prosperity and the strength that it seems so determined to misuse derive entirely from its integration with the wider world. This is why the threat of isolation can be made effective. Billions have already been wiped off the value of the Moscow stock exchange. Capital flight will pick up and inward investment will suffer as a result of continued Russian recklessness. Meanwhile, visa restrictions for ministers and oligarchs may be necessary. And if Ukraine and Georgia are not yet ready for full Nato membership, their leaders should at least receive consistent, high-profile support as they seek it. Dithering will only make a dangerous situation more so.
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Bob Samms,
Bravo! That would be the great decision - Russia in Nato! But whom to be scared of next? Military needs money. Muslim World? Oops... it is not going to be politically correct. Russia is the better enemy
Diana, Tallahassee,
to Greg, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, who wrote:
>>> a 300 year empire which has produced nothing but war>>>
If Russia were not efficient in producing war, you would be writing and speaking German now.
Zloy Tugarin, Moscow, Russia
Russians are absolutely same europeans>
Unlike Georgians, whose country is situated in Asia, and who are hence Asiatic (not an insult, Russian are Asiatic too while being simultaneously Europans).
Zloy Tugarine, Moscow, Russia
Based on Russian history Russia will continue to attack its neighbours until it is stopped by outside force >>
You are absolutly right! Russia should have common borders with Germany.
Zloy Tugarine, Moscow, Russia
Based on Russian history Russia will continue to attack its neighbours until it is stopped by outside force or internal conflict.
Sander Heinsalu, New Haven, US
Russia should now recognise Kosovo if it's using the same principle in Abkhazia/S Ossetia. That'd make the West's position untenable. Georgia meanwhile should call for UN monitored) referenda in the disputed areas. if they vote for independence Georgia should let them go. And then join NATO!
Bob Samms, Warwick, UK
If you keep poking the bear it will rip your head off and it will be your fault. That said I would quite like a war. So go on put those sanctions in place and go for a ground invasion of the Mother Land it did'nt do Napoleon any harm did it?!
james, edinburgh, UK
It's all a mystery to you? Want to know how it all connects, world incident after world incident? Then read about "Trilateralist Goals" and Brzezinski's "Grand Chessboard". You'll find every reference you need in there...............
jay gee , Vancouver, CANADA
Many commentators have said that the Caucasus is not worth going to war over. This immediately begs the question of what is worth going to war over Ukraine? Moldova? All Eastern Europe? History should have taught European countries at least that appeasement does not work.
Sander Heinsalu, New Haven, US
Reckless people, if you don't drop your idea of pulling Ukraine and Georgia into NATO you will get a real war. Any actions of Russia against you will be justified. This time compared to WWII you will get ground operations of foreign troops (read Russian) on your territory. Do you need this?
Peter, Novosibirsk, Rus
To Philip - if US recognises S.Ossetia and Abkhasia - then why not?
Michael, St.Petersburg, Russia
A Russian 'Suez', perhaps, where economic realities may eventually prevail and so illustrate that 'diplomacy by tank' is so 1968.
m collins, Leeds,
Presumably Russia should withdraw recognition of the two provinces, does that mean the West will do the same with the province of Kosovo? If not, why not?
Brian, Sydney,
The biggest mistake of west is that it thinks that Russia is equal to USSR. That's why "Russia lost that conflict" is not true. Russia won because communist regime is dead. USSR is NOT Russia. And west still thinks it is.
Anton, Zurich, Switzerland
Admit it or not, everyone knows the USA is the bully...! Bullying anyone it chooses...! - whenever it chooses to...! marching all over the planet like it owns the place...! All it knows is MONEY - POWER - and FORCE... Meanwhile, Milliband stomps around ranting and raving in America's big-boots...!
Joanna Jay, Walton on Thames, UK
After the cold war the u.s.a has invaded , pillaged and destroyed countries in the name of democracy highlighted by there need for the rich recourses of the east. U.S.A isin a check position and all they can do is mouth, to attack russia would be disasterous for the entire europe.
Boris, Moscow,
One question: why western press opposes "choice in favour of West" and "choice in favour of Russia" for post-soviet states? If it will be surprise for you, but Russians are absolutely same europeans without any distinction. May be, this is the root of all evil?
chiragu, Kursk, Russian Federation
One must realize Russia has supporting countries North Korea, China and basically the whole East. That is a mouthfull the west cant chew. Russia has nuclear war heads and is not affraid to protect its boarders. The world must takeits blinkers off. Russia is here to stay, or go down with it.
Boris, moskow,
Russia the 'bully' needs to be put in it's place and Georgia and Ukraine saved from a 300 year empire which has produced nothing but war, famine, and misery for millions of people. The West needs to reduce Russia to it's small 16th century state known as Muscovy. Then the world will be safe.
Greg, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
After such move, Russia should think about gaining independence to Chechnya. And Mr. Lavrov is right when he says that Kosovo is different. Majority of the population was forced to flee Abkhazia in 1990s (300,000 people-over 70% of the population), South Ossetia is ethnically cleansed from Georgians
Nina, Tbilisi, Georgia
Yet another regretful example of russofobia. Just a reminder: both Abkhazia and South Osetia have gained de-facto undependence from Georgia in the early 90-s soon after the collapse of the USSR in bloody wars initiated by Tbilissi in implementation of its policy of '"Georgia for Georgians'" .
Dimitri, New York, US
Freezing the bank accounts of Russian top officials (who are extremely rich people) in Western Eruopean banks may help to hinder further escalation of the Russian aggression.
Priit Vahter, Nottingham, UK
God save all those who make geopolitically strategic decisions based on what they read in British tabloids. It seems that the presence of 2,000 Georgian troops in Iraq will give terrorist Saakashvili unconditional support.
Alex, Ottawa, Canada
Your position is more reckless than Russia's. You appear to be advocating military action and/or confrontation. It is same old, same old thinking. Fallacious, uninformed. Your military option may make us roast at some point. Diplomacy, the French way, is the way to go! Trust not your arms always!
Ken Orj, Washington, USA
visa restrictions are west's most effective response? The fact that breaking economic, political or military ties hurts West more than it does Russia only underscores how all of these relationships were unfair to the Russians. Had they been fair they wouldn't be so cavalier about losing them.
Tony, Rochester, USA!
Presumably Russia will now recognise the independent state of Kosovo. If not, why not?
philip, London, UK