William Rees-Mogg
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It would be hard not to feel sympathy for Gordon Brown, although some people are managing that task pretty well. In terms of intellect, seriousness and experience, Gordon Brown is still the best qualified of the members of his own Cabinet to be Prime Minister. David Miliband and Jack Straw are the most plausible alternatives, but neither is a formidable candidate, or likely to win the next general election for Labour.
Though it is now a long time ago, Gordon Brown's first Parliament as Chancellor, from 1997 to 2001, was deservedly successful. He was wrong to damage the private pension system by introducing a stealth tax, but he was right to give the Bank of England independence on monetary policy, and to keep Britain out of the euro. He was also wise to follow Kenneth Clarke's Conservative expenditure plans.
In his second and third terms as Chancellor he was more political and less effective; he allowed government expenditure to rise under the misleading name of “investment”, which most of it was not. He obstructed Tony Blair's proposed reforms of health and education. He was one of those chancellors, like Nigel Lawson, whose misjudgments, though significant, have to be set against important achievements.
In his speech on the scaffold Charles I observed that: “A subject and a sovereign are clean different things.” That is certainly true of a chancellor and a prime minister. Since 1945, only four chancellors of the exchequer, out of a possible 21 have gone on to become prime minister. They were Harold Macmillan, James Callaghan, John Major and Gordon Brown; not a wholly reassuring list.
The talents required of a prime minister, particularly the political talents, are very different from those of a successful chancellor. Of course there have been chancellors who might have made excellent prime ministers, but never reached the top job.
They tend to have been centrists such as Rab Butler, Iain Macleod, Denis Healey or Ken Clarke. Nigel Lawson, although an important Chancellor, was probably too individualist to become prime minister.
It is often said of self-made men that they “made their own luck”. In the year since he became Prime Minister one could fairly say that Mr Brown has made his own bad luck. He inherited the consequences of his own economic policies. For ten years he controlled financial policy with an iron fist. He had an agreement with Tony Blair that economic policy should be left to him as Chancellor.
In any case, Tony Blair never showed any sign of competence in economic policy, or of taking much interest. Even his property speculations became a public joke.
Mr Brown's big mistake was that, as Chancellor or Prime Minister, he failed to foresee the crunch that lay ahead; indeed, he boasted that he had abolished “boom and bust”. It was always an obvious danger. In 2000, I was involved in formulating the investment policy of a large charitable fund. All of us saw that there was a threat of a big downturn ahead. We based our investment policy, successfully as it turned out, on protecting the fund against the downturn whenever it should come.
At the Treasury, Gordon Brown must have been warned of the risks. Yet he raised spending in the spirit of the US Admiral David Farragut: “Damn the torpedoes. Full speed ahead.” A high proportion of Brown's present unpopularity can be attributed to stagflation, with its painful combination of rising costs and falling income on a national scale. The torpedoes have struck.
There have also been specific blunders in his year as Prime Minister. He should not have allowed the expectation of an early general election to run away. In 1955 Anthony Eden did use his honeymoon period as Prime Minister to call an election which increased the Conservative majority. Yet a prime minister must understand himself; Mr Brown has a risk-averse personality. An early election could have been too big a risk for him; he should have realised that from the beginning.
Mr Brown has also handled the Lisbon treaty as badly as he possibly could. He allowed Tony Blair to negotiate the treaty - with too little attention to the detail of British interest - and to sign it at the last European meeting before his retirement.
Mr Brown then failed to sign with the other European prime ministers, and refused a referendum on the grounds that Lisbon was not a constitutional treaty. This pretext has not satisfied public opinion, whichever point of view one takes. Mr Brown looks, at best, untrustworthy on European issues.
This combination of economic downturn, indecision and Europe has undermined his standing in the country. The latest opinion poll, taken by BPIX for The Mail on Sunday, must be the worst that any prime minister has had since polling began in the early 1940s.
The party preferences are bad enough. The Conservatives have 49 per cent with Labour on 26 and the Liberal Democrats on 14.
The personal ratings are even worse: 85 per cent think Gordon Brown is doing worse than expected; 44 per cent think he should quit now; one in three voters regards David Cameron as “attractive” but only one in a 100 finds Mr Brown “attractive”; by four to one, voters think that Mr Cameron rather than Brown represents change; 53 per cent wish that Tony Blair was still Prime Minister.
Public opinion often exaggerates. Mr Brown was not as good a Chancellor as the public thought, and he is not as bad a Prime Minister. Yet one cannot see how he can expect to win a general election in 2010. An added difficulty is that Labour is more or less insolvent, owing £24 million. I suppose Tony Blair might come back if Labour asked him nicely. Who would not prefer to live in Downing Street than Connaught Square?

William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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W R-M writes
" Mr Brown looks, at best, untrustworthy on European issues."
Indeed so ,and on any other issue !!!
neil, london,
At the age of 74, it is unlikely that I will have much influence on what happens. I see the next president of the USA may be 71! In the UK we have talent but it is not used. To be a politician you must start young and stay at home. When this dust settles, we must again use the talent we have.
Brian Lewis, Manila, Philippines
How clever, William Rees-Mogg! Way back in 2000 you KNEW that we would have a downturn! Why didn't you tell us sooner? How have you waited till now, when it is too late? I suppose you also knew about the coming credit crunch, or the spike in all prices, and back in say 1982 you bought some oil.
Robert, Lancaster,
To answer Mike Archer, Malta, the growing question is whether the EU will be there at all. Too many countries at too many different speeds of development or wealth will never be united. Germany and Cyprus can never be in the same economic zone. It will pay a terrible price.
albert hall, hove, england
Does anyone believe, given the probable outcome, that the Conservatives, if/when elected, will give the people of this country a referendum on anything European that they, for their own political purposes, do not want voted down?
Of course not.
Dave, Edinburgh, Uk
Mike Archer, Malta
You asked for an explanation so sit tight. Joining the euro also involves surrendering control of interest rates to the ECB. This means that if the UK has high inflation compared to the rest of the EU then we would have no way of reducing it (by raising interest rates).
Nick Mackenzie-Rowe, Halesowen, West Midlands
Mike Archer, Malta cont..
Would you be complaining if the pound was strengthening against the euro, I think not. There is no chance we will join the euro cos it would require a referendum and we know what labour think about them.
As They know they would lose. Tories hate europe anyway.
Nick Mackenzie-Rowe, Halesowen, West Midlands
I'm a Tory, and think Brown has done much to damage England and its people - but if I HAD to choose, would rather have him as PM than Cameron (Blair 2) - but wouldn't vote for either of them.
Marty, London,
Poor old Gordon. He has inherited the mess left by the grand deceiver - and added to it. More decent than his predecessor and a whole lot more so than his opposite number. What is British politics coming to?
Robert Good, Freetown, Sierra Leone
I thank Albert of Hove on his judgement of my ability to handle my affairs but would have preferred an answer to the question as to why the PM refused to join the euro and why so many people are against it. We will join,its when not if.
mike archer, mellieha, malta
Public confidence low, house prices falling, energy costs rising, increases in inflation, anti-EU; Look further than your own little island!! The same is happening in The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. Which has got nothing to do with Labour government or Gordon Brown but with World Economics.
Anastasia, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Why not bring back Tony Blair to win the election and then pass it straight back over to Brown to be the Prime Minister - worked last time!
Ian Smith, Swindon, UK
Economics aside, Brown one was one of the key supporters of the immoral, illegal, irresponsible Iraq war. He was too cowardly to stand up and be counted until forced. The too self-interested to dissent. The blood of thousands is on his hands.
Sam C, Shrewsbury, England
Personally I liked Mr Brown, he's a vast improvement on Blair and he looks like a prime minister plus his wife respects his position unlike Tony Blair's wife who was a disgrace in public. But Mr Brown failed us on the EU treaty so much I no longer like him as PM. He's sold this country, disgraceful.
Richard Irwin, Bristol, UK
Nick London, I absolutely agree that the fact he doesn't have public approval via an election has damaged him, but for E Burke to argue that we aren't a democracy, just because he doesn't understand the electoral system, is utter rubbish.
Nick, London,
Yes, Paul Bradbury, it's just you. Most other people are aware that Scotland isn't independent yet. The Scottish administration is paid for in a block grant from Westminster. Why do you think Labour are so pro-union - if they lost Scotland's votes the LibDems would probably win more seats than them!
Dan Vevers, Edinburgh, UK
Mike Archer,
I'm afraid whether or nto t join the euro is not simply about whether the currency is currently strengthening against the pound. It's a little more complex than that & could have caused significant cost increases even had we joined.
PP, UK,
The Peter Principle is alive and kicking.
Glenn, Brecon, Wales
Hmmmm. All that UK gold which Gordon sold off cheaply. In view of UK's present predicament - I wonder, if he hadn't sold it - what it would now be worth?
Mary Lyn, Roughton, England
Nick, London. Splitting hairs on this like our names. However I think some of Browns failings stem from not earning public approval via an election. Fighting for the right to lead party and the country is character building. John Major earned his right of passage and served. Brown just controls.
Nick London, London, UK
Gordon Brown - unelected, unelectable. Enough said.
RB, Aberdeen,
Why isn't the MEDIA stating the obvious? Asking the Saudis to produce more oil & invest in a substitute for our benefit? Why should they? Would we? David Williams is right - they should have sent for the men in white coats.
We need leaders with a grasp of basic business principles
Mary, Birmingham, England
Am I the only one who thinks that with an independent Scottish Parliament in place, he shouldn't even be allowed to be an MP in England, never mind the Prime Minister?
Paul Bradbury, London,
Nick in London; whilst I agree with your comment that we vote "for the party, not the man" and that Brown's promotion is therefore valid, can you (or anyone) explain to me how it is possible for an elected MP to defect to another party mid-term?
Mike Lewis, Leeds, UK
53% want Blair back?? I don't think so. Talk about replacing the organ-grinder with the monkey
I hold them BOTH responsible for the appalling situation this country finds itself in, economically, socially, morally. There's no-one else to blame.
Dave, London, England
No, Edmund Burke, it isn't nonsense. I suggest you refresh your knowledge of the political process in this country: we elect a party, and the party elects a leader. While you (and I) clearly disapprove of the party's choice, there is nothing undemocratic about it. This isn't America.
Nick, London,
Nick London has hit the nail on the head. What on Earth are we in the UK doing - calling ourselves a "democracy" - if the active head of government in our country was appointed by his predecessor, instead of being voted in by the electorate? The whole scenario is complete and utter nonsense.
Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England
For Mike, Wrexham, I think you mean emmigration is the answer. And from what I see, it is not just a few! I am one of miliions who are leaving - for me to a country at the heart of the EU where the future lies.
Richard, Germany,
Brown is small minded man, almot univerally dilsliked.Hiscommunist leanings and indeed teachings in the late seventies were known.
Ruling by sheer force of personality in a Stalinite manner appeals to the man.
The problem is there is no personality.
David Smith, Glasgow,
You are obviously not managing your money well Mile Archer. Malta. This is a great time for people with a few bob in the bank to make money. Well said Daniel Salaman, Cyprus. That sums up Gordon well. But, then, he has a deadwood Front Bench devoid of the skills to help him.
albert hall, hove, england
The man has no grip on commercial reality.
He has asked an oil producer to produce more oil so that the unit price can fall. He then asks that same producer to invest in schemes designed to render the product redundant.
The Saudis should have sent for the men in white coats.
David Williams, Eastnor, England
He has no personality let alone a risk averse one to speak of, thank god I abandoned the realm of Gordie and went to NewZealand like so many other revenue, wealth generating people have done recently. He is a disaster that Britain will take many years to recover from, thats if it ever can!
james, London, England
Public confidence low, house prices falling, energy costs rising, Bank of england predicting further increases in inflation; all pretty grim and Brown is about to give a speech telling us to work harder! I guess it's all our fault then for being lazy.
Right or wrong,as political leader he is inept
Tom, Huddersfield, uk
The reasons that so few people realised Mr Brown was a dreadful chancellor were Labour's stalinist control of much of the media and the active collaberation of many journalists.
As PM the mans towering ego, minute talent and noexistant courage are too publicly exposed for anyone to hide.
edward green, upminster,
There are some amusing comments in this artice - and hard to understand. Why was it such a good idea to stay out of the euro? Why is Miliband a 'plausible alternative?' Little experience except at Environment where he opined that 'he had learnt a lot.' Out of depth in Foreign.
john problem, winchester, uk
On several key issues since becoming PM, Brown hasn't just done the wrong thing, he has given unbelievable reasons for his decision (the non-election, Lisbon). He looks & sounds untrustworthy & on Lisbon & the EU IS untrustworthy. It's easy to lose a reputation for honesty; impossible to get it back
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
On the contrary, I'm enjoying every moment of this sickening hypocrite's humiliation and failure. PMQs is particularly enjoyable - he's useless at it.
Hilary, Telford, UK
By the time we get to vote these traitors out there will be nothing left of Britain to save. We have been sold out to E.U. and I fear it is to late to save us. For the lucky few immigration is the answer,as for the rest of us.. Welcome to Hell
Mike, Wrexham, U.K
"Mr Brown has a risk-averse personality."
Understatement of the year
John Wood, Hull, UK
The writing was on the wall at the first PMQs after last summer's recess. Considering Brown had been in Parliament for over 20 years, he should have learned the skills to answer questions on his feet. His inept performance at the despatch box was stunning, and it's been all downhill since then.
Peter, Singapore,
An unelected leader of any regime, especially one who became leader of his party unopposed will lack not only a genuine mandate but impetus to do anything but cling onto power. Anwhere else in the world we would look at such a regime and demand a free and fair election. Is this the UK or the USSR ?
Nick London, London, UK
We are 'uniquely vulnerable' to the global downturn according to the OECD.
Why, because of the total mismanagement by Brown as a Chancellor and PM of the economy.
We are at the very beginning of a sustained recession, maybe even depression. With nothing in the govt/private coffers except debt.
Jeff B, Weybridge,
The sight of a British Prime Minister going to Saudi Arabia with his begging bowl and ,in effect, saying "Alms for the love of Allah" is a national disgrace.
Has Britain been impoverished by this socialist government to the extent that we can not fund our own power generation program?
Stephen Green, Correns, France
As a brit living in europe I have to disagree with "right not to join the euro",I have watched the value of my spendable british savings diminish as fast as the quality of life in theUK .Please explain to me why it was correct.
mike archer, mellieha, malta
The man is a liability, and damaging all our futures with the help of his cronies. All change please!
Rob, B'ham, UK
It is amazing and quite fascinating in nature that people who are so incompetent , and incapable manage to reach the highest official positions of power without having the necessary credentials for the job. Gordon Brown is a rare example of this kind of natural strange phenomenon . What a disaster
Daniel Salaman, NICOSIA, CYPRUS
Inadaquate Chancellor and Mediocre Primeminister. Both posts dominated by a dogmatic socialist who has on policy TAX the middleclass
steve tea, manchester, chshire