Sarah Harper
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So the UK is ageing. But the UK is not alone. Population ageing is a global challenge. Over the next 50 years, the age composition of nearly every country is expected to move to one in which the old outnumber the young. In 20 years' time half the population of Europe will be aged over 50. So the recent announcement from the Office for National Statistics that the UK now has more pensioners than children under 16 simply places us in line with world trends.
The main cause is falling fertility. Current UN population forecasts suggest that Europe will hover just below the replacement level of 2.2 children for at least the next 50 years. However, longevity is also increasing. When UK state pensions were introduced in 1948, average life expectancy for male manual workers retiring at 65 was 69. Now a 65-year-old man can expect to live well into his eighties.
We are seeing a fundamental shift in the demographic structure of society. It will affect the way we live, the way we work, public services and healthcare, private and public benefit systems, families, communities, patterns of saving and consumption, provision of housing and transport, our education systems and even the geopolitical order of the 21st century.
The UK labour market, for example, is being transformed through population ageing. For several decades now, the UK has relied on young migrant labour to compensate for its ageing population. But as fertility falls across Asia and Latin America, global ageing will intensify the world skills shortage and potentially create severe competition in the labour market. It is essential that the UK looks to the large skills base it has within its own economy, and retains experienced older workers in their fifties and sixties. Such a policy will also address concern over increased spending on pensions, as people will work and contribute to the pension pot for longer. This will allow more of the public purse to be spent on the growing number of over-eighties, who will need long-term care.
One employer, early promotion and early retirement are likely to be replaced by flexible working, frequent employment moves or even portfolio careers with regular retraining and changes in occupation. As life-long learning and adult education become more widespread, mid-life company directors may retrain as teachers; shop assistants upskill to become company directors. These working lives will be punctuated by employment breaks to allow for child rearing, travel, education, elder care, self-employment and leisure. Men and women in their fifties and sixties, whose children have left home, may increasingly join the growing number of UK migrant workers who will travel oversees to Asia or the Americas for a few years to take up the opportunities of the international labour market. Retirement is likely to move from an abrupt halt at a fixed age to a more gradual withdrawal, with the abolition of compulsory retirement ages. UK workplaces will benefit from age-integrated workforces that include both young and old workers.
Our cities will change too. The increasing dominance of the UK high street by retailers targeting the young will be replaced by more age- segregated shopping areas. The district of Sugamo in Tokyo, for example, is now a vibrant area for fashion and entertainment for the over-sixties, which more than mirrors the city's Harajuku District, aimed at Tokyo's teenagers. Indeed, this is the future UK retail market. The over-fifties hold 60 per cent of the UK's savings, represent about 80 per cent of the UK's disposable wealth and are responsible for 40 per cent of the consumer demand in this country, spending some £200 billion a year. In marketing circles the “grey market” is set to become the new “black”. About half the fifties regularly shop on eBbay and more shop online than the under-thirties. Advertisers are beginning to recognise the over- fifties as creative consumers, who respond as well to attractive relevant marketing propositions as their children and grandchildren do.
UK families are changing too. Falling fertility and increased longevity is leading to multi-generational families - more grandparents and grandchildren, more great- grandparents and great grandchildren, but fewer siblings, cousins, aunts, uncles, nieces and nephews - the “beanpole family”. We are also now seeing a rapid growth in extended beanpole families - reconstituted step-families with large numbers of step and half-brothers and sisters. These families will provide the care for older adults of the future. But they are increasingly complex. We have grown up with the understanding of generational succession. The system works because older generations grow old and die and pass on assets, power and status to their descendants. What will happen when we have not three generations, but five all alive and active at the same time? When we are in our eighties before we inherit from our parents or even from our grandparents?
My mother's life expectancy at my age was in her mid-seventies, mine is 96. That is two decades of more life in one generation. Currently, every hour we live adds five minutes to our life expectancy. How are individuals going to restructure their lives in the light of this knowledge? During a lecture I recently gave on increasing longevity at a London boy's school, a 12-year-old piped up: “If I am going to live to 150 then I shan't have kids until I am 80!” Perhaps one of the reasons why people are delaying having children is because they realise that they will be still be around far longer to see children grow up.
The UK should not fear its coming maturity. Mature societies need not be societies of old people burdened by providing health and social care to frail elders. They provide the opportunity for age-integrated flexible workforces, increased communication between generations, age equality and political stability. As people age they accumulate a wealth of experience, knowledge, skills, memories, wisdom and creativity. Governments and employers need to work together to enable the recruitment, retention and retraining of older men and women, whose skills, expertise and experience is so valuable to our economies. Then the UK's older population will remain valued and needed members of our society. The UK's young need not fear the future either. In a future world of scarce skilled labour, they are a valuable commodity - with a huge international labour market eager to attract scarce skilled workers. Mature societies provide the opportunity for multi-generations to live and work alongside each other, contributing their own experiences and expertise. This is successful population ageing.
Sarah Harper is Professor of Gerontology at Oxford and director of the Oxford Institute of Ageing
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Let's revise education in addition to retirement. Life long learning makes more sense now that everyone can expect to live long enough to see major societal and technological changes. Going to college for two years at ages 18, 38, and 58 makes more sense than trying to learn everying in one round.
Joseph, New York City, USA
Just read an article in the Telegraph reporting a projection from the EU's statistics office. Apparently, by 2060, Britain will be the most populous of the EU countries. Our population is set to rise from 61 million now to 77 million. Certainly not due to falling fertility, one imagines.
Dwight Vandryver, Scholar Green, Cheshire, UK
As someone working in the pensions industry I recognise all the points in Sarah's article. The biggest change I have seen in private sector pensions is that requests to work beyond State Pension Age now greatly outnumber early retirement requests. Most of these requests are not financially driven.
Bernard, Reading, UK
New challenges......age discrimination & no work !
Paul, Coventry, England
The main cause is not falling fertility. The present surge in pensioners has been predictable since the "baby boom" of 1946. Women born then are now 62. The "big bang" of the pensions crisis will occur in 2011 when the male baby-boomers of 1946 reach 65. But nobody in government will prepare for it.
Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England
Whenever I hear about life long learning and career changes it is put forward by people who are usually in comfy journalistic/academic posts - no career change for them of course! What about the professions? It's not just paper qualifications you know - experience counts for a lot too.
Dr Ian Burgess, Bristol,
each hour we live adds five minutes to our longevity? Depends what you're doing for that hour, ie chomping French fries,chain smoking, etc. Obesity, new diseases and a changing world climate do not seem to factor here, but interesting article.
William , London , UK
(David from Dubai "One of the major benefits of the ageing society will be that ageism will disappear. I won't recruit anyone under 45")
You are joking right? You are ageist!
David, York, UK
Aging population? No problem! Just do what NuLab traitors have done for the last 12 years which is to pursue a policy of ethnic cleansing through the encouragement of immigration of alien peoples into Great Britain. Result? Country trashed, native culture vanished, English race mongrelized.
Steve, Sutton,
The main reason why women don't have any or as many children is because they have the choice. With the education of women comes controlled fertility and increased quality of life. Managed population decline can only be good for us and the planet.
Lyn, Birmingham, UK
What is age? Some 50 year old people have more going for them than most 20 year old; this country has not got a grip with ageism we are surrounded by it and who cares what your age is I am 42 ex army and now in the TA and on my way to Afghanistan to serve queen and country again. My last encounter with the army I noticed young soldiers unable to keep up with physical exercise (play station generation) they are weak fighting stock so stuff age.
bill, Liverpool, England
Harper makes no mention of the distribution of the 'replacement level' of citizens. She claims that in Europe it is about 2.2 though it neglects to mention that for Islamics it is about 3.2 and for native English it is about 1.5. The net result is that England is changing its charecter dramatically.
Michael Peevey, Singapore,
It scarcely seems selfish to postpone having children, and to keep the numbers down when one does. Postponing childrearing until one can better afford it, given the enormous expense, seems quite practical.
APV Gordon, London,
"...shop assistants upskill to become company directors..." - who says academics at oxbridge are out of touch!!
By the way Dale, I agree, but in Britain we call it 'sponging' off the system instead of 'bludging', which I believe is something to do with Quidditch!
Ed, melbourne, australia
Yes, we have 60+ staff that learn new computer programmes and platforms. So many confuse chronological age with what really matters mental ability and enthusiasm. Old children grow into Old adults. Young children stay enthusiastic and their usefulness does not end at 60.
Michael Wood, London, England
Britain is the worst Society for the young (paedophilia, etc.), & the aged (devil may care) & violence for the middle aged. We need a new moral order.
ian cheese, london, uk
'The over-fifties hold 60 per cent of the UK's savings, represent about 80 per cent of the UK's disposable wealth and are responsible for 40 per cent of the consumer demand..'
Really? Quite a revelation given the scant regard the over-fifties receive from either government or commercial sources.
m collins, Leeds,
So we'lll have more 60 year old policemen/women? 60 year old builders? 60 year old engineers? Have you ever trained a 60year old to use a computer? 60 year old pilots? Perhaps in an office you can have a "grey" workforce,but,with due respect, there are many vital jobs you cannot.
Chris, Rochdale, UK
The solid fact of this story is that people in the uk who are educated and most likely to have children through choice, cannot afford to.
Andrew, Aberdeen, uk
I know many people who have retired only to head back at least part time. Some of this is already happening.
J, London,
Morag, you are wrong, of course. The ageing of western societies inevitably leads to older average age for marriage and childbirth. It would be unnatural if it did not! Some parents are able to have children later, & their daughters then inherit this ability. This is called E V O L U T I O N.
B, London, UK
Public sector final salary pensions, public sector retirement as early as 55, and an overly generous welfare system for the elderly means that old age and falling fertility in the young is unsustainable. The 60/65 wants to retire, employers want youth? Who pays for old age health and welfare?
Karen, London, UK
With referencve to mac, reading. We have a great many wonderful young people ready to inherit the world. I sure they will make a far better job of it than our generation has...
Martyn, York,
mac, literacy rates are the highest that they've ever been. At the same time, computer systems are generally becoming more inuitive and easier to use (I remember when we used to have to type cryptic commands into black screens...).
Mark Johnson, Birmingham, UK
Rubbish This article is Science fiction. It will be more like logan's Run, when after a certain age you are exterminated. The Brits don't like children and really hate old people for reminding them of their own mortality. Life long learning for what dealing with poverty? Sleeping on the street?
David Hambly, St Albans, UK
Regarding pensions; I remember in 1973 when Barbara Castle introduced SERPS an actuary said categorically that they would never be able to pay what they were promising. Brown has since stolen billions each year from pension funds and squandered it all. How does this fit with future demographics?
Derek Morris, Salies de Bearn, France
Sarah - you forget one thing , most companies are frantically tryign to mitigate the loss of experinced staff (who are tryign to get out of this crumbling tax behemoth created by nulab)
throu developing new computer systems - but if the new genration cant even spell there's trouble ahead...!!
mac, reading, uk
An ageing population is fine if it can sustain itself - which would mean people working way beyond 60/65 and more people having more children.
However, people want to retire at 60 and live off their pension for 30 yrs and younger people can't afford to have children... Tricky!
Charlotte, London,
I'm 56 today and have a doughter of 2: hope to work so long as I can. The main question is health: are we going toward a society where most people is aging healthy or a society that is likely to be a huge asylum?
marco, como, italy
If your theory is to be played out then the mindset of UK company Directors, Managers and HR needs to dramatically change as age discrimination is rife in this country!
There is no respect for age in the UK!
Youth is seen as the greatest asset you can have not age and experience.
John, Kingston, UK
Isn't refusing to recruit anyone under the age of 45 ageist? And on pensions; We have to accept the state can't support us all, & fewer and fewer employers are prepared to risk sponsoring final salary pensions. We have to take responsibility and start saving more and earlier for our futures.
Claire, stafford, UK
I don't see life-long learning being much of an option for today's youth - many of whom have never learned to learn at all.
Sort out education - mainly by giving teachers their head - before you start looking on the bright side.
Rosemary, Liverpool,
I am 60. I have no desire or plan to retire any time soon. One of the major benefits of the ageing society will be that ageism will disappear. I won't recruit anyone under 45, but then I live in a country where age and experience are respected.
David, Dubai, UAE
My experience tells me that most women in the UK are having less or no children is because they absolutely can't afford to have them. Even the most basic 1 bedroom homes are virtually unaffordable to those on normal pay, let along extra bedrooms.
Penny, London, UK
Yes it is true we are living longer and we are still being led up the garden path when it comes to pensions. Many of us will not be able to afford to retire and will have to work until we drop. The fact is that the pension market is not a service but a private profit making business.
John Finningham, Gillingham, UK
Morag - you'll have to explain your twisted logic that it is somehow an act of generosity to have children. If that is so there are some incredibly "generous" people out there bludging off welfare.
Also sweeping generalisations about IVF imply a moralist zealot; we're in the 21st century you know.
Dale, Australia,
If any of this is to be true there needs to be a major shift within government. I gave up a successful business 2 years ago because I was so sick of the mindless bureaucracy dictating everything I did. I hear the same from others - self-employed and employed. The reality is we can't wait to retire
Derek Morris, Salies de Bearn, France
"Perhaps one of the reasons why people are delaying having children is because they realise that they will be still be around far longer to see children grow up. " I doubt this is the reason! Selfishness is more like it, followed by weeping if babies have to be bought via IVF after chlamydia etc.
Morag Marinoni, Birmingham, UK