Gerard Baker: Economic view
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Hours before Hurricane Katrina barrelled into New Orleans three years ago, the bureaucrats at America’s National Weather Centre, by profession not the sort of people given to melodramatic outbursts, issued an extraordinary warning.
In a statement that sounded Biblical, indeed Apocalyptic at times, the cool-headed meteorologists dropped all the usual scientific prose and in staccato, telegraphic form, forecast unprecedented destruction.
“Human suffering incredible by modern standards . . . Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer . . . Persons, pets and livestock exposed to the winds will face certain death . . . Only the heartiest will remain standing.”
That last line was a reference to trees, but, as we know tragically now, it might have just as easily applied to homo sapiens, too.
After another weekend (the fourth straight by my count) of frantic financial negotiations and damage control in Washington and New York, I fear the world now needs an economic version of that famously terrifying (and accurate) warning.
The deal that at last seems to have been reached between the Bush Administration and members of Congress to shield US banks from the worst of their losses may or may not prove to be useful in helping the financial system to get back on the path towards some sort of normality. But we should be under no illusions that, even if it works as well as its authors hope (a large aspiration), it is already too late to avert a serious economic downturn — not just for the US, but for the world and, like the residents of New Orleans that fateful weekend three years ago, we seem ill-prepared for what is about to hit us.
I say this with great reluctance. It is no business of journalists (who, as someone once said, are like harlots, who wield power without responsibility) to go around scaring people. What’s more, until a few months ago I’ve been a relative optimist, convinced that we would get through this with not much worse than the kind of mild recession we’ve seen in the past 20 years. Now I think it might be time to panic.
The US is already in a recession that, even if financial conditions returned to normal today, would still be very unpleasant. In the quarter that ends tomorrow, it seems almost certain that US total output declined. Consumer spending and investment have been alarmingly weak in the past two months. On Friday we are quite likely to get another depressing report on the labour market, expected to show the ninth straight month of job declines in September. The housing market still seems to be getting worse, with sales falling faster than new construction, adding to the excess supply.
Britain’s economic activity is already declining, as is that of most of the big eurozone countries. So much for “decoupling”. We may have got into this predicament by different routes, but we’re all going the same way.
As I say, even if financial markets started to function perfectly again, this would be bad — but that’s a hopeless dream. Market dysfunction will surely persist for much longer, whatever the US and British Treasuries are able to do immediately.
The scariest number I saw last week was not the dramatic widening in spreads between Treasury yields and interbank interest rates, nor the similarly increasing gap between yields on the debt of top-rated companies and those of lesser quality.
It was the volume of tier one commercial paper issued — down 15 per cent on a year ago. Corporate borrowing is shrinking, in other words, at an almost unprecedented rate. If that goes on for any length of time, we are essentially turning off the economy’s life-support.
So what on earth do we do? Run and hide? Get ready to go back to barter?
There’s been much abstract talk in the past few weeks about the role of government in a capitalist economy, the proper amount of regulation, that sort of thing. The time for that sort of discussion will surely come. But for the moment — in an emergency of historic proportions — there ought to be no debate about what government should do. Even the most pro-market capitalists knows that this is when you need government — the only institution with the ability to take on the task needed.
We need a global effort now not simply to reliquefy the financial system, but to save the real economy from collapse.
A much more dramatic easing of monetary policy is surely essential. The Fed has done much but can still go further. Unfortunately, there have been some at the Fed, and dominant voices in the Bank of England and the ECB, who still feel constrained by the fear of inflation.
Worrying about inflation in times like these is like worrying about how you’re going to borrow the money you need to get out of town when the hurricane hits. If you wait too long, you may not survive in any case.
Central banks now should essentially be providing free money — as much of it as necessary — to the entire financial system.
Fiscal action will be necessary, too: governments will have to swallow their concerns about medium-term fiscal constraints and Maastricht criteria and everything else.
The United States, imperfect as it has been, has led the way here. If you’d said six months ago that Washington would need to spend a trillion dollars to save the economy, you would have been told it was impossible. But the impossible happened (after a slight detour in Congress) in about three days last week.
Difficult as it may be, governments everywhere need to get similarly unreal and do the unthinkable. The problem in New Orleans three years ago was that, for all the melodrama of that famous warning, no one really believed that it could be that bad.
It is the essential paradox of prudent preparedness that the more alarmed you are about what might happen, the less likely it is to happen.
It is already too late to avoid a period of real economic misery. But there may still be time to avoid a catastrophe.
Gerard Baker is United States Editor and an Assistant Editor of The Times. He joined in 2004 from the Financial Times, where he had spent over ten years as Tokyo correspondent and Washington Bureau Chief. His weekly oped column appears on Fridays
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Government is the problem - NOT the solution.
Cheers.
William Kent, Brandon, Canada
So only state intervention can save the so-called 'free market'.
Paul, Coventry,
The deal means: Bankers took billions bonuses from the banks on false profit pretence, the banks are bankrupt, the taxpayer picks up the bill and the bank bonusers get away with theft and bankrupting the economy...and Congress turned it down? They were right! Give bonuses back! Bring the guillotine!
antoine, London, UK
if the european press is desperate for a 'resolution' in America, they must decide between helping themselves or obama.
The current democratic speaker of the house does NOT want a deal. Economic uncetainty has provided the best of possible environments for Obama's chances in Nov.
mark , tennessee, usa
It is a wonder that the ECB, BOE and Fed have not already consulted you, for surely they have overlooked your sublime solution and the fearsome logic that underlies it.Why do we need economists when we have journalists? Liquidity and debt are not the same thing as any accountant could tell you.
J Keynes, London,
In order to achieve the necessary reductions in co2 emissions to avoid runaway climate change the economies of the developed world will have to contract and then converge with less well developed, less polluting economies. It seems that the credit crunch is going to start this painful transition
sheila, LEICESTER,
We are heading for a world DEPRESSION. Its as simple as that.
louis , Liverpool, UK
The final denouement of the "Greed is Good" philosophy that has reigned ever since Ronald Reagan's election in 1980. Now, perhaps, we can admit that there is a role for "Big Government" and that market forces alone cannot solve all problems.
Roman, Chicago, USA
This is assertion, not reasoning. There are no circumstances - ever - in which a subject of controversy is beyond debate. Attempting to claim that it ought be is a dishonest attempt to suppress scrutiny.
It is not a legitimate function of government to invest in failing private enterprises.
James E. Petts, Burnham, England
Great changes are always preceded by great turmoil.
Chros, London,
Nice article. However "hope" is passive and we need action. The problem lies perhaps much deeper. We are all hypnotized in thinking that capitalism and marxism are the only economic systems available to us. But we had an ecomony long before the Wealth of Nations or Das Kapital. An historic note.
Wim , Volendam, Netherlands
Lend willingly, lend expensively. Central banks should lend as much as is needed and charge a good, high rate of interest. Let it be deferred as long as it need be.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
It is well known that only suffering makes people intelligent.
Can everybody please look at the concept of transition economies as we are facing not only peak debt, but peak oil, peak water and in 60 yrs peak uranium.... Solar and waves is infinite. Please if you love anybody incl yourselves think!
Esther Phillips, Leatherhead,
Brilliant idea. Run the printing presses flat out printing free money. Inflate our way out of our troubles. Welcome to Mugabenomics.
Your "remedy" would ruin all of us. Not just the imprudent lie-to-buyers and borrow-to-letters.
Tony Peterson, kendal, uk
you havettotally misread the future, a period of value for money house prices that reflect the minimun wage, shop full of quality not tat, worker that ask their boss for a rise not their credit cads, simple living on the wages not credit.
michael joseph, cahersiveen.adams towns, madness
We have entered an era where the world financial system has changed so much that it has become impossible to predict the future from the experience of the past.
We do not know where we are heading, so Its no good using old solutions to prop up past practices. Assets must find their true value.
dudley holley, Thorpe Bay, UK
Your telling us too late that we are in for economic misery. Why didnt you tell us earlier so we could have done somthing about it?
barry smith, London, England
For all the talk of how wonderful Mr King is and the right approach taken by the ECB on inflation, nothing will be more galvanising for governments when protesters hit the streets...and they will.
Plastic surgery is pointless for those who are dead. We sit by beach as the sunami roars in...
David Downes, Chester, UK
Free money and hyperinflation: Germany did it in the 30s...US took the pill of correcting excess credit by lack of credit for a while...this time, they'll go the opposite way!...but all will pay the price of excess credit and banking laissez faire, bubbles and "thiefery" ...Where are Hitler & Stalin
Antoine, London, UK
Well thanks for casting a few pearls of wisdom, Gerard....
But I seem to recall your earlier prognosis in about May when you were asking where were the grapes of wrath....? And your witty aside that that the economic chill had produced mere raisins of wrath... What now, the melons of wrath
belacqua, London, UK
The whole systems rotten and always has been.Since the industrial revolution money has been made above all else,causing war,polution slavery,loss of traditions and moral values all for the sake of making an elite few rich.We are near the end and hopefully a brighter future awaits.Itsgonna get rough!
Rob, Manchester,
This is Greenspan's 'The Man Who Saved The World' legacy - cutting the interest rate to a silly 1%, post 9/11 thus forcing other central bankers to lower theirs...
cww, Ipswich, UK
Reflating an already failed economic model is just going to drive the nail deep into the coffin of the US and UK. The BoE must stick with the ECB. There will be pain of economic adjustment.
NO PAIN, NO GAIN!
Stephen Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
We only need to look back to Japan in 1990 to see where this will lead. A quick fix today will only postpone the inevitable - the risk being that it takes 10 -15 years to work through. The Japanese will tell you about "free money"...rates have been close to 0% for many years, for little benefit.
John, London, UK
I predicted this 6 years ago: house prices didn't relate to people's incomes, there was a huge increase in the use of self-certification mortgages and independant financial advisers; I fixed my mortgage for 10 years in response. Yet never once did I hear you or any politician express concern.
Philip T, Leeds, West Yorkshire
Providing cheap money doesn't work....Alan Greenspan did this and it let directly to the housing bubble. The solution is to provide decent paying jobs and make sure government signs "fair" trade agreem that benefit the domestic workers; not hurt them. You need a middle class and you need manufa jobs
Terry, New York, 10011
Blame the Republicans - the deregulators (McCain included). To quote from Al Franken "Republicans complain about how our government is broken. And then they get elected and prove it.". Government and regulation can work...sad truth is the Republicans are just not up to the job...
Terry, New York, USA
Forget the Housing Market. It is now DEAD and will be for quite some time unless people have short memories. Majority of people will be in negative equity for at least 10 years.
Louis, Liverpool, UK
In addition a global economy can only work if you have "one global currency" and "one global regulatory body". China who pegged their currency (the Juan) to the dollar give them an unfair advantage, With once currency all countries would be competing on a level playing field......
Terry, New York, USA
Countries would have to compete based on their country's raw materials and their labor force..you would also need to have global labor laws so companies could no longer exploit workers in a poorer country....if this is not possible..I would like to see the US go back to be independent in all areas..
Terry, New York, USA
Obviously Baker is a fan of the Zimbabwean economic model.
Thank God for Mervyn King.
Martin Clarke, Leicester,
Previous bailouts have resulted in even bigger bailouts. Face the problem, and let the markets sort out bad management. Invest the $700 billion in expanding jobs and productivity. Give Americans rebates for investing in solar thermal and voltaic, creating jobs in construction/manufacturing/suppliers
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
Gordon Brown said 'I will not let house prices get out of control'. So he knew there was a risk, presumably because he knew of the dangers that would ensue , yet he sat back & let it happen - due to 6x increase of stamp duty from £600m to £3,600 m in a few years. His nose was too far in the trough
Steve, West Wickham, UK
I want to know when letting bad companies go bust suddenly became a bad thing. In general I'm with Robert Harris, with the caveat that governments should be seeking to improve depositor protection and SME lines of credit to prevent the systemic problem of a run on the banks.
Corrupted Mind, London, England
Surely 'growth' cannot go on forever??
It alsomay be that bailing out imprudent bankers (gamblers) goes against the grain for most people, but there is no other way in these circumstances. A depression is something beyond living memory, but it's effects included suicides, hunger and homelessness.
David Nammory, Liverpool,
"Central banks now should essentially be providing free money as much of it as necessary to the entire financial system."
Such a great idea! Why nobody's done this before? Oh, wait - some did. Ended in a hyperinflation so. But this time it will surely be all different.
Ilia, London, UK
History confirms the natural order of life is that the strong become stronger while the weak perish. Any attempt to prevent the inevitable always exacerbates the problem. Nationalise failing firms within an industry and you condem the industry. U.K. banking IS the essence of the U.K.'s economy !!
Fred Russell, Dubai, U.A.E.
The penny is finally starting to drop. The Western world has been living on credit for years, we did have time to turn it around; unfortunately in my opinion time just ran out. From here the situation is going to get extremely serious indeed. This is the the result of mass economic self-delusion.
paul, Carlow, Ireland
I fully agree with Robert Harris, Perth, Australia. You are simply advocating a quick fix so that we can get back to the good old days rising house prices, profligate lending, bankers with their snouts in the trough, etc. We need to squeeze the weaknesses out of the system now.
Steve Cox, Porthcawl,
Michael Steele, Memphis: Frightening that Americans fail to understand that their world-view is horribly flawed and has now terminally hit the buffers. Welcome to to the real world: you won't like it very much, but so what?
John, London, UK
In the 80's the S&L crisis, 90s the Asian economic crisis and the Mexican crisis, etc.
No one even remembers those "catastrophes" now
"Illiquid collateral" phenomenon is hardly new, it marks every economic cycle.
All resolved with the US Fed intervention.
Try to recall this "crisis" in 6 months !
NMB, California, USA
to paraphrase Dr Johnson "Necessity has a marvelous way of clearing the mind."
glenn schaefer, holbrook, us
Good article. The only problem is that the world is so gummed up with debt that even lowering rates, increasing liquidity will not revive the US and UK economies. We are heading for depression, high inflation, falling currencies, massive Govt debt, unemployment etc.Can't stop this train wreck!.
MGrelton, Bath, UK
The USA that we all worshipped was dreamt up in Hollywood & was financed by credit cards with loan shark rates.
The insane, sub-urbanized, de-centralized, public-transport deprived, oil-consuming automobile utopia just ran out of juice & can no longer be maintained or even tolerated by mankind.
Michael Willis, DETROIT, USA
Totally agree that the easing of monetary policy is essiential, with the caveat that the help is directed to investment in infastructure etc. Providing jobs by investing in the future is a priority. I would favour a buy back for troubled owner/occupiers so that they can rent to remain in their homes
Damien Vaugh , London, UK
People should understand that both free market and government interventionism are not absolute principles and cannot be worshipped. They can be useful or useless at times, according to circumstances.
Osvaldo Loisi, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Frightening that a man from Perth, Australia understands American history better than nearly all Americans do. Government got us into thus mess. They have also made a mess of education, energy and everything else they have gotten their hands on. Health care is their next project. God help us!
Michael Steele, Memphis, Tennessee, USA
It is a frighteningly deep deep economic hole that world wide ecomony is getting into.We got there by chasing around on excesses of credit generating large debt without the true assets or an accurate value system.
What we are seeing is a huge economic correction .This will generate a depression
Mark West, Glasgow, UK
How about what we really need is TIGHTENING of monetary policy, real market level interest rates and NO government bailouts. Your recommendation is straight from Hoover/Roosevelt and would surely send this necessary recession (or more accurately correction) into a prolonged and deep depression.
Robert Harris, Perth, Australia
And all because house prices rose too much. Why, why, why did we let it happen. Oh yes, it's because everyone said it was a GOOD THING... Right, well done everyone. No thought to what debt means then. Nice one. The question is, do we do the same thing next time?
Bob Jones, London,
Well, thank you for comming around, finally!
Peter Adam, Chevy Chase MD, USA