Comment
Central: Will race hurt Obama?
There is probably only one person now standing between Barack Obama and the
presidency. His name is Tom Bradley; he is the black, Democratic former
Mayor of Los Angeles, and he has been dead for ten years.
In 1982 Bradley ran for the governorship of California, and was expected to
win by a wide margin. In the run-up to the election, polls gave the
African-American candidate a lead of between 9 and 22 percentage points over
his white opponent. On election day the first exit polls also predicted that
he would win, and one newspaper even declared him the victor on its front
page.
Bradley lost by more than 100,000 votes.
The conventional wisdom is that he was the victim of a hidden racial reaction.
Many white voters told pollsters that they would vote for the black
candidate but, in the anonymity of the voting booth, they did not. The
impetus for the deception was not simple racism, but social pressure - white
voters, it seems, did not want to appear racist by admitting that they would
be voting for the white candidate rather than the black one.
At its simplest, the so-called “Bradley Effect” (which some dispute) holds
that polls overestimate support for an African-American candidate because,
when race is involved, voters misrepresent their intentions.
The effect is not unique to Bradley: in 1989 David Dinkins, the black
Democrat, was expected to romp home in the New York mayoral election, but
won by only a narrow margin; in the same year Douglas Wilder, another black
candidate, was 11 points ahead the day before the Virginia gubernatorial
election, and won by only 0.5.
This, then, is the spectre that haunts the Democrats. Mr Obama is at present
up to 14 points ahead in the national polls, a lead that would seem
unassailable were it not for the unpredictable Bradley Effect, a nagging
fear that defeat could be snatched from the jaws of victory because opinion
polls behave differently when a black candidate is running.
A similar phenomenon occurred in the 1992 election in Britain, which pollsters
put down to the “shy Tory factor”. Opinion polls put the Tories one
percentage point behind Labour; but in the final result, the Conservatives
won by nearly eight percentage points.
In certain, rare circumstances voters do not tell pollsters the truth, more
out of embarrassment than mendacity.
The hidden effect of race is even harder to predict in the Obama-McCain
battle, since we are in uncharted polling waters - there has never been a
black versus white competition at a national level in the US before.
Complicating matters further, those people most likely to be prejudiced
against a black candidate are also those least likely to talk to pollsters
and answer surveys: there may be an anti-Obama block out there that is
simply not showing up on the radar.
Is it possible that a submerged racial iceberg could still scupper the Obama
ship just as it appears to be cruising into harbour?
The latest evidence - anecdotal, statistical and historical - suggests that
although the ghost of Bradley still hovers over the election, its effect is
diminishing. A Gallup poll in 1958 found that 58 per cent of whites would
not vote for a black candidate; by 1989, that figure had dropped to 19 per
cent; by 2007, only 5 per cent felt the same way. Even taking into account
the taboo surrounding overt expressions of racism, that is a stunning
change.
This is not a post-racial election: some whites will still be motivated by
old-fashioned prejudice, and others by its queasy residue most often
expressed as “doubt”. Yet race has faded, as has the social stigma in
stating a preference for the white candidate over the black one. There is
less pressure to lie to pollsters than there was even a decade ago.
In the 1980s and early 1990s racially charged issues of crime and welfare were
central to the political debate. Today those concerns have faded. This
election is principally about the economy, and despite the efforts of some
Republican strategists to stoke the fires, race does not have the political
purchase it once had.
Michelle Obama made a sound point last week: “If there was going to be a
Bradley effect, or it was going to be in play, Barack wouldn't be the
nominee.”
Indeed, there could even be a Reverse Bradley Effect in operation: support for
the black candidate may, in fact, be higher than polls suggest in some
areas, particularly in regions, such as the South, where it is more socially
acceptable for whites to voice distrust of blacks. There may be two
competing deceptions at work here, equally hard to trace: a black lie (“I
say I am going to vote Obama, but secretly I will not.”) and a white lie (“I
say I am not going to vote Obama, but secretly I will.”)
In the Democratic primaries, pollsters found the Reverse Bradley Effect (ie,
an underestimate of the Obama vote) in 12 states, and the Bradley Effect in
only three.
Yet many Democrats remain anxious that the secret ballot on November 4 will
reveal, once again, America's secret racial fears. America's attitude to
race has changed: how much it has changed will be measured by the Bradley
Effect, or lack of it.
If, once again, the polls prove to have overestimated Mr Obama's support by a
wide margin, then the conclusion must be that voters have not only lied when
asked whether they will vote for a black man, they have lied on a scale
never seen before.
But if, as most experts claim, the polls turn out to be an accurate reflection
of voters' intentions, then this will finally show, in the words of Mr Obama
himself, that America is no longer “irrevocably bound to a tragic past”. The
Bradley Effect will have proved ineffectual, and the unquiet ghost of Tom
Bradley will finally be laid to rest.
I think what is standing between Obama and the White House is not the Bradley Effect but the Rev. Wright effect. Obama is very racist and I won't vote for someone who is. If McCain attended a KKK meeting for 20 years and said he wasn't paying attention to the message I wouldn't vote for him either.
badger, Arizona,
I feel America will vote for what is right, whether the candidate is black or white
Donna McDonald, Houston, TX, USA
At Dan,
You may have a good point but for there to be change and for the human race to move forward as one without colour prejudice, people need to make the necesarry changes for everyone to recognize that colour or race doesnt matter, and that is why black people will naturally vote for obama.
Dom, Bournemouth, UK
Racism is alive and well, even in "liberal" places like L.A. I experience it a lot because I look white, but my mother is "colored"; so White people express their racist feelings to me not knowing that I am also "colored". I think only my grandchildren will live in a world without racial prejudice
gherhardt, Los Angeles , U.S.A.
I think Americans will vote this year election not by race relation but by what is actually matters to them economically, health care,education and foreign policy. unlike in the u.k when credit crunch hit the world they say it is because of the presence of immigrants in Britain.
mohammed fuseini, Nottingham, Ghana
Why is it racist for a white man to vote for a white man, but not racist for a black man to vote for a black man. If 99% of black Americans are going to vote for Obama, then does that not mean that they are racist for making him their choice solely on the basis that he is black?
Dan, St. Louis, MO, USA
The fact that people are so in love with Obama is very scary. Even if he was from the other party it would still concern me. We need balance government. All left which is what will happen if Obama wins, or all right is very bad for the country. I hope people realize this and elect McCain
Peter, Florida, USA
Leila, Manchester, UK. Sarah Palin has broader executive experience then the "Chosen One." Both as mayor and Alaska governor, she reduced taxes, increased services, took on several corrupt politicians along with the oil industry,etc. Her voter approval rating in Alaska hovers in the 80% range.
Jim, Empire, USA
Most of us Yanks are not decendants from the slave owners, we are decendants of the people who left the oppression of Eurpore, the authors Europe, looking for opportunity. They were discrimated against, but worked through it. All most Americans want is the chance to prosper.....
John, Buckingham, USA
If, just if, Obama loses, who will remember that Obama's lead over McCain in the polls has never been greater than 50% of the "don't knows" ?
Nothing racist there.
Just a massive majority of media folk who will not comment on the actual numbers that the polls are producing.
germaine botterell, london,
Were we racist when we voted outy Kerry and Gore for their liberal/socialist leanings?Oh, I just remembered we stole those.Nevermind.
Jalama, Forestville, USA
Unspoken? We speak all the time about race, as long as it is about the evil white man keeping the poor, darker-skinned folk down.
Some folks may not vote for him because he's black, but a lot more folks will decline to elect him because of his far-left agenda
Stop global whining!
John Gaines, Alexandria VA, USA
The article has it backwards: the election is partly about race -- some leftists want the PC smug points for all eternity -- but almost entirely about politics. Obama stands for everything the Republicans are against. Other than the left and some blacks, nobody really cares what race he is.
Doug Beaton, Sanford, USA
I'm not voting for Obama because I think he is too liberal, too inexperienced and I don't like the company he keeps. I don't like McCain either but I think of him as the lessor of two evils.
Racism is a canard you guys fly to keep one's eye off the ball when it comes to Obama's faults.
SAF, MANCHESTER, NH, USA
Stop the race baiting. If the unlikely occurs and Obama loses the election, it will be because the American public has voted against the socialistic policies of the liberal Democratic candidate.
Rocco Santarelli, Reading, USA
He should stand for presidency in Kenya. Qualified and much more brilliant than anyone else there, it's a shoo-in.
m wilson, bidache, France
How about the "spoken" legacy of deeming a candidate completely unqualified?
bill keane, branford, USA
It has been most amusing to read you Euros writing about racism in America as a possible threat to Obama's election ... never mentioning that if his election is to be thwarted by racism, it will have to be secret racism from within his own liberal Democratic party.
Also, It is interesting to see a complete absence of self-flogging of your own vast racism ... when was the last time you Brits or any of you superior-minded Euros elected a black man or woman to any of your highest offices? Go on, elect a black Muslim your next P.M. then I won't have to talk about a Europe still bound to its own "tragic past" of raping, pillaging, and enslaving in your far flung empires.
Aubrey, Melbourne, USA
Fear..comes in many forms.. I will vote for McCain because I am afraid od the Democratic Party. Centralized government, one party rule, government controlled healthcare...all reek of socialism and has sounds...and smells of totalitarian rule.
Common sense dictates McCain must win.
Marjorie, Beaumont, usa
Get over it, John in Atlanta....Barack Obama is going to win in a few weeks. The US (along with the rest of the world) is tired of the arrogance, the recklessness, and the denigration of our great country and ideals. I voted for Bush twice...I voted EARLY for Obama. Stop the politics of fear.
Jennifer, Atlanta, United States
America will not vote to put itself in a mess. Bradley effect aside, this time the polls are far from what the real people would vote. In reality the polls only indicates what the leftists media wish and wants to hear. Those who don't trust the pollesters wil not give their true opinion anyway.
John, Atlanta, GA
I used to think that , Robert, then my partner corrected me. "You say i am half white (white mother) and half black (black father) but what the world sees when i walk in the room is a black man. I don't look white and i never will. So I'm black. That's reality. And what's wrong with being black?"
Vinnia, Brighton, UK
It's extremely frustrating to always hear Obama referred to as "black". This is a man who has equal American caucasian and black African heritage. It's a historical legacy of a previously overtly racist America that the categorisation of anybody with a drop of black blood is black! This should stop!
Robert, London, Britain
Vaughn, Portland...
You can't lump "Europe" together like that. The culture and custom of, for instance a Englishman and a Spaniard are too radically different to bear it.
Daphne, Cambridge...
Ignorance is the biggest problem on Earth, racism just one symptom of it.
Chris, Derby,
You gotta be kidding. It is our system which has failed big time. Obama will repair the damage that Republicans created in the first place. 8 years of Bush/McCain policies have created profound damage to our economy.
"Obama isn't offering a fresh new approach-it's the old tired European socialism"
Ted M. Garza, albuquerque, USA
And how far ahead would Obama be in the polls if he were white, with an Anglo - Saxon name?
Obama and the Democrats must run as if there was only a ONE point difference; The Republicans will stop at nothing to steal this election by stopping as many Democrats (especially black ones) from voting
jnik, Richmond, VA, USA
As an expat in the US I am heartily fed up with the continual theme that any loss by BO will be due to racism. Rubbish.
Look at his tax policies, just like Gordon's - tax increases then credits/rebates. No thanks.
Lectures from the UK & EU on US racism is kinda funny when you think about it !
Stan(expat for now), USA, Usa
As a canvasser I've seen the reverse effect in action daily. The voter will take a step outside and, if the coast is clear, whisper, "I've always voted Republican, but not this time. I'm voting for Obama!" Often, this is followed with an audible, "Hmph!" Any Bradley effect will be neutralized!
Future, Youngstown, Ohio, USA
Why is it "racism" if people just don't want to vote for Obama because he is so inexperienced???
Anthony , Boston, USA
Charles, Washington
The writer was merely noting that there was a supposed "Bradley Effect" when Dinkins first ran for office because his margin of victory was significantly less than polls suggested. You are suggesting that he won bcause race was not an issue, the writer argues that margin says so
pem, Tampa, usa
Obama isn't offering a fresh new approach-it's the old tired European socialism that has failed. Just the thing to put our economy in the tank. The poor will be poorer for it. He's a cosmetically appealing, gifted speaker with an odious background. No Harvard Law review writings by Obama? Why ?
Donna, Kailua, USA
And the first black UK PM will be?
Curtis, Paxton,
Hatred of Muslims, hatred of Black people, hatred of Jewish people. These people who hate so much of the worlds people is always the same group of people, why?. One group who claim to be Christians is so full of HATRED why! If the message Christ delivered was we must love one another.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
It is not the color of his skin, but the content of his character, or lack thereof, that will determine my decision.
I agree with those who have noted that we are 'd@mned if we do and d@mned if we don't'.
Kate, Maryland, USA
For over a year now, it has been acceptable for politicians opposing Obama (McCain and Hillary Clinton) to imply that, because of his middle name Hussein, he somehow had links to a dark side. Since when was it okay to malign a whole group of people because of a name?
Toni Summers Hargis, expat, Chicago, USA
I'm a middle class American & believe the American dream shouldn't be changed Obama style. The problem with Obama is that he wants more government, higher taxes & a redistribution of wealth and I don't trust him. He expediently changes his views, friends and associations, he's only loyal to himself.
D. Hudson, Los Angeles, United States
Using former Mayor David Dinkins as an example of the so-called Bradley Effect is ludicrous. Mr. Dinkins beat Guiliani to become Mayor of New York in 1990 but lost the next election- because he was a horrid mayor. Were his race an issue at all, how was it that he was first victorious?
Charles, Washington, DC,
Having grown up in the US and been in almost every part, and having often visited Europe (4x this year), it's quite clear to me that, in practice, European peoples are still far more racist than the US. I see things on my visits to Europe I've never in my life seen in the US, even in the deep South.
Vaughn, Portland, OR, US
Racism has got to be the worse thing on earth, the many racist out there could only experience how it feels for one day they would stop. Racism affect education, it affects job opportunities, the success we make of our lives depend on being treated fairly. It is a very serious problem it must stop.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
I am a 47 year old Caucasian female living in a red state. I am not afraid to go to the polls and vote for Obama and that's exactly what I intend to do on election day. I believe he will help get us out of this mess, help the families that are struggling and lead this country in a new direction.
Robin, Smithfield, USA
Clearly painting the US as more racist than Europe is not acceptable. Dave, Menlo Park, CA, USA How is telling the truth not acceptable? Alex, London You have lived too long in London! Are not Gypsies throughout Europe still being persecuted? Hell is being black in Poland or Greece
Steve, Edinburgh , United Kingdom
America is about to demonstrate whether the Frontier Theory still works on its soil. Electing a black president is one more frontier to be conquered and exploited. This is the Grand American Experiment in action. I would not be surprised if Obama wins. Good luck America!
Kakha, london, uk
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
Here's one for you Dave, how about a fresh approach to leadership in .....Great Britain!
Rob Bain, Derby,
Obama will not win becuase he is black and he will not lose bacause he is black. Stop spouting the same tired lines, what will you do if he wins - say the bradley effects is dead - We know what you will say if he loses. The race is close and will be until the fat lady sings a victory song.
KWM, London,
Republicans will vote for their man, regardless of race. That does not make them racist, only partisan. Democrats will vote Democrat, for equally partisan reasons. Insinuating that those who vote against Obama for his skin color is reprehensible and ignores reality in favor of fear-mongering.
Janet, Pass Christian, USA
I hope this isn't true, I hope that we are overall better than that. I know not everyone is, but hopefully the VAST majority of us...
*sigh
Terra, Osage, United States
Its not about his color,its about his politics.More taxes,more for those who do not want to put forth the effort and plain inexperience are enough to not vote for him.I could care less if he was purple with yellow polka dots.America needs leadership now more than ever.The two party systen has failed
Timothy Ferguson, Atlanta, USA
Race isnt the issue. Its the stigma that the political correctness police put on people for not towing the line to their views. No one wants to be called a bad person in public, so instead they smile nicely and vote their conscience in the voting booth. I say good for them! Horray for democracy!
Bill Dow, Atlanta, GA, US
It is true, assume nothing but you are right to say that when interviewed in the street, people will say whatever is necessary but in the Polling booth, it may be a different conclusion.
Many White people in Europe would not vote for a Black or Asian candidate.
They may say they will but......
Howard Leech, Gdansk, Poland
Clearly painting the US as more racist than Europe is not acceptable.
Dave, Menlo Park, CA, USA
How is telling the truth not acceptable?
Alex, London,
This is a silly argument. Up by 14...come one...so you looked through all the polls and picked the highest number you could find. You should work with Michael Moore because you have the same style. He's only up by 3 or 4 in others.
Kevin, Fujian, China
So looks like we are going to be racists no matter what happens...darn the luck. Loss = racism, close loss = racism was the key factor, win = won despite wide spread racism. I hate myself, country....please European types tells how we went wrong and show us the way forward!
Kevin, Fujian, China
"...the conclusion must be that voters have not only lied when asked whether they will vote for a black man, they have lied on a scale never seen before."
So, your summary seems to be that the *only* reason people wouldn't vote for Obama is his race? Aren't we allowed to consider his policies?
Adrianne, Maplewood, NJ, USA
Is he black because it was his mother who was white? Bill, Belfast, N. Ireland
We could call Obama "mixed race" however the coming together of a "white" man or woman with a "black" man or woman where a child was conceived that child was termed black!
We embrace Obama as our own
Proud Zimba
Zonke, Hemel Hempstead,
The liberals will cry racism if Obama loses. Please grow up.
Wendy, Forks, USA
Bill in Belfast,dave in Bruxelles - he's black because people treated him as black when growing up. Read his first book, written when he was fresh out of Harvard - he adores his white grandparents and mother, he's a remarkable man and his book enlightened me...I wore the other mans shoes 4 a minute
Hugh, Hove, United Kingdom
Why is it so wrong for people to vote for someone that they identify more with, ie somebody from their own race, people are emplyed on this basis, ie black social care workers working in the inner city etc etc, if people want to vote for someone from their own community they should be able to.
mark jones, Stoke, staffordshire
As a black person, I do wonder if he really is black - he's mixed. It's so silly that people do not want to acknowledge one part of his heritage...Also, he is as pre-packaged as most other recent presidents - Ivy League education which opened doors for him. He is not too different in my opinion.
Chi, New York,
People from Europe hinting that the US is racist is laughable. They ought to start counting all the black politicians this side of the pond. You think France or Italy would elect a black President?
Nick, London, UK
Maybe Obama surrogates have played the race card once too often.
The latest outburst from John Lewis was pathetic
Jim Talbot, Auckland, New Zealand
Is he black because it was his mother who was white?
Bill, Belfast, N. Ireland
I believe a Bradley Effect could occur in many EU countries in similar circumstances, Dave Farmer take note.
A bigger problem of unvoiced voter concerns might be the slip of tongue by Mr Obama in a TV interview with George Stephanopoulos, when he referred to his Muslim faith.
Martin Cole, Angouleme, France
Anthony Lester: The problem is that some Americans DO still consider race or non-American origin to be a deciding factor. The fact that ANY American has such an opinion, whilst living in such a diverse country in which most white people are fundamentally European immigrants, is concerning.
Emma Norman, Munich, Germany
Is Obama black? I hadn't noticed.
David, Brussels,
40+ years on since Dr. Martin Luther-King 'spoke' 18 years since Nelson Mandela was freed is it not about time there was a fresh approach to leadership in America?
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
I think many Obama supporters were aware his race could be an issue but calculated his positives - charisma, freshness, embodiment of change, ability to appeal to independents - outweighed this negative.
Matthew Blott, Harlow Town, United Kingdom
Optical vote counters will still be hacked, and the new bogeyman isn't black, he's "liberal". But I do think there's a Reverse Bradley Effect (Reverse "liberal" effect?), especially among Southern white women which should put Obama over.
Ann Prehn, Middletown, CA , USA
Can we leave race out of it. Can we please assume that Americans consider more than just 'black' or 'white' when they choose who they vote for?
Anthony Lester, Brum,
As is the case with so much of what is written about Obama, this is silly. How can we know why people lie in polls? Perhaps it is because they fear being sneered at by the left-wingers conducting the polls. Politically correct sanctimony is no substitute for analysis of alternative explanations.
larry_darrell, London, UK
If the Bradley effect thesis was true, would it not have come into play during the primaries with Hillary ? There was no Bradley effect then nor will there be one in the national race. The polls are way off because they poll only people with home phones,they miss the young voter w/cell phones only.
Ed Small, Greenville, North Carolina, usa
This is umpteenth article on this. The ground is being laid that any loss by Obama will be blamed on racism (no matter what the other factors). The only question is, if Obama wins, what will they do. Clearly painting the US as more racist than Europe is not acceptable.
Dave, Menlo Park, CA, USA
Macintyre is absolutely right to raise this possibility but in what could be described as something of a miracle in the past two weeks, America seems to be finding its way. Jobs, health care and superior temperment and judgment by Obama will trump this historic racism as voters seek a new direction.
JT, Venice, FL, USA
The thought of having Sarah Palin as Vice President and possibly President should be sufficient to win Obama the Presidency.
leila , manchester, uk
The exit polls gave Kerry an expected win by a decent margin - substantial enough for me to make a tidy sum betting on Bush.
Disraeli was correct about statistics. Polls are no exception. The more caustic the opposition to a candidate the less likely you are to obtain accurate polls. Assume nothing
John Swaine, Malta, Malta