Robin Pagnamenta, Energy and Environment Editor
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The era of globalisation is over and rocketing energy prices mean the world is poised for the re-emergence of regional economies based on locally produced goods and services, according to a former energy adviser to President Bush and the pioneer of the “peak oil” theory.
Matt Simmons, chief executive of Simmons & Company, a Houston energy consultancy, said that global oil production had peaked in 2005 and was set for a steep decline from present levels of about 85 million barrels per day. “By 2015, I think we would be lucky to be producing 60 million barrels and we should worry about producing only 40 million,” he told The Times.
His controversial views, rejected by many mainstream experts, suggest that some of the world's biggest oilfields, particularly in Kuwait and those of Saudi Arabia, the world's leading producer, are in decline. “It's just the law of numbers,” he said. “A lot of these oilfields are 40 years old. Once they roll over, they roll over very fast.”
Mr Simmons asserted that this, coupled with soaring global energy demand, meant that world oil prices were likely to continue rising. He said that even at present record highs of more than $140 a barrel, oil remained relatively inexpensive, especially in the US, the world's biggest market. “We are just spoiled rotten in the US,” he said. “It's still cheap.”
Rising prices will force a tectonic shift in the structure of the global economy by destroying the rationale for shipping many goods, such as food, over long distances, he said. “This is already happening. In the US, our local farms, ranches and dairies are booming. They are having a huge comeback.”
Mr Simmons set out a radical vision of the future, envisaging a society in which food and many other essentials are sourced and consumed locally and increasing numbers of people work from home. He claimed that the alternative was increasing political instability and conflict over the planet's diminishing resources. “We are living in an unsustainable society,” he said. “If we don't change we are just going to start fighting one another...So let's just start assuming the worst and plan for it.”
However, only this month, BP disclosed figures which indicated that the world had 1.24 trillion proven barrels of oil left in the ground - more than 40 years' worth at current rates of production. BP said that known global reserves had actually increased by 168.5 billion barrels, or 14 per cent, over the past decade. Tony Hayward, the chief executive of BP, said: “The good news is the world is not running out of oil.”
BP blamed a lack of investment and access to reserves, rather than geology, for why global oil production was sputtering.
Mr Simmons claimed that many countries had overstated their reserves for political purposes and that so-called flow rates were a better indicator of recoverable volumes. He said that the quality of oil produced by Saudi Arabia and other big exporters was declining.
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It is not so much a matter of "running out" of oil. It is an economic issue: What are we to do when it requires two barrels of oil to pump out one barrel? The real disaster is that we have developed no alternate, large-scale, economic energy source for TRANSPORTATION. Nuclear powered autos, anyone?
DAVID LEVIN, Jersey City, USA
I love the comments about not running out. Anthony USA you are a star. The evidence of Peak is all around us. Collapsing economies and markets are a harbinger of what's coming. James Kunstler calls it the Long Emergency. It doesn't just happen. Its a slow squeeze that became evident on 9/11/2001.
Deano , Manchester, UK
So many chicken littles in one location.
Phil, London,
Simmons is spot on. I reckon we're going to see some major airlines collapse in the next year as well as our integrated logistics systems begin to break down which means no food in the supermarkets. Time to grow vegies and keep a few chickens just like GrandMa did in the depression.
Steve Gardner, Melbourne, Australia
The problem is not running out of oil, rather the problem is not being able to pump oil out of the ground fast enough to meet demand at a low price. A little research might help:
Intro:
http://globalpublicmedia.com/peak_oil_for_policy_makers
Peak Oil:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
James, SSF, USA
It's best to first educate yourself to the specifics of the problem, go to wikipedia and type in "peak oil", they have a great article. Then go to google and type in the "theoildrum" that website is where true energy and oil experts post articles. You can ask them questions about oil shale and sands
James, SSF, USA
Anthony clearly doesnt know anything about oil extraction.
Shale will never scale to be a significant contributor due
to the energy and environmental inputs required. Brazil is
nothing more than speculation of what might be at this stage,
in ultra deep sea (7000 m down), a formidable challenge.
Martin , Boyle, Ireland
In response to Anthony in Charleston.Rate is everything.Shales will need higher than the current price to be economical if ever and will never replace the rate at which conventional reservoirs produce.Brazil is deep and expensive and the reserve numbers are speculative at best.
Jimmie, LaGrange,Texas, US
Behavioural economists have a term for people who commit to an irrational perspective based on faulty perception: cognitive dissonance.
Roughly: this means competing states of rationality, or the ability to know that one's actions are irrational but to act anyway. Psychiatrists call it 'akrasia'.
Daniel, London, UK
There are 2 trillion barrels of oil in the shale fields in Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah. Brazil just made a huge discovery off shore that would give it the 2nd largest proven crude oil reserves behind Saudi Arabia. This gloom and doom talk about peak oil is nothing but a sham !
Anthony, Charleston, WV, USA
We started running out the moment we started using oil. We live on a sphere--in space. It is finite. Question is do we want to waste this cheap energy or use it to convert society to a more sustainable lifestyle? Those who advocate business as usual are essentially calling for chaos and disaster!!!!
Cherenkov, Newton, USA
Anyone who believes "reserve" estimates at face value probably believes in Santa Claus and the tooth fairy too. These numbers are not reliable enough to justify the trust that so many economists, politicians, and citizens place in them.
Michael Graham, Guadalajara, Mexico
'Don't Panic.' It's the first helpful or intelligible thing anybody's said to me all day."
But James, if you know history (read "the last 8 yrs"), you know that governments cannot always protect their citizens.
We must hope for the best and prepare for the worst. To merely hope is foolish.
Jonathan, Boston, USA
It would be good if we could fill up our cars with reserves!
Johan Nissen, Falkirk,
Mr Simmons is not wrong. It's just a matter of when peak production will occur.
BPs chief executive is mistaken. We are using more oil than is being found therefore we ARE running out.
Growth-dependant economies require MORE every year otherwise they collapse. Think about that!
Misha, Wellington, New Zealand
He has a point, in the 1980's OPEC countries jumped reserves and eer since they have not gone down. I doubt that OPEC they are telling us the truth and the judgement is in the $142 a barrel we are paying today.
The USA uses 20 million barrels, they have to stop it demand side.
Pete Best, Northampton, UK
Oil as an energy source? Another 40-70 years. Solar energy ? Another 60 million years. The better investment is rather obvious from that comparison.
Peter, Geneva, Switzerland
wow...so many experts on the subject...who knows until the sun descends over the horizon which in this opinion will be sooner than later
Michael Green, Houston, USA
"Former President Bush energy adviser says oil is running out" - No, he is not saying that.
As a matter of fact, Matthew Simmons's "controversial views" are in line with what BP's Tony Hayward is saying.
It all boils down to flow rates .The production infrastructure is maxed out. Period.
Saul Rosenbaum, New York,
Look at BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2008. Use the charting tools. Look at production in top oil exporters, Saudia Arabia, Iran, Russia, Norway, UAE. Overall production now in decline. Look at consumption in same countries. Rapidly rising. Look at China and India.
Simmons is right.
Alister Hamilton, Edinburgh, UK
All we have to do is harness the vast untapped reserves of natural gas.
There are far greater quantities of natural gas than oil.
Don' t panic,its the vested interests talking up impending doom.
James C, Marbella, Espana
Off course it's running out
It started to run out as soon as they pumped up the first barrel
Steve Byrne, christchurch, UK