Anatole Kaletsky: Commentary
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Happy days are here again! This was the headline over an article I wrote in the aftermath of Black Wednesday in September 1992, when Britain was expelled from the European exchange-rate mechanism and most people assumed the economy, along with the Major Government and the pound, had fallen off a cliff. It seemed to me, by contrast, that Black Wednesday had suddenly given Britain’s monetary authorities the freedom to cut interest rates more rapidly than almost anyone imagined possible – and that was exactly what the Government, which in those days controlled monetary policy, did.
The result was a rapid economic recovery, followed by 16 years of uninterrupted noninflationary growth.
Three weeks ago I wrote that the Government and the Bank of England faced a similar challenge, and opportunity: that interest rates could be reduced, without any risk to inflation, to 3 per cent by Christmas and eventually to around the US level of just 1 per cent.
The best way to begin this process – and to bolster British businesses, homeowners and consumers with the reassurance that monetary relief was on the way – was to cut interest rates by a full percentage point on November 6. When I wrote those words it was more in hope than in expectation, but in the event the Bank has done even more than the boldest advocates of monetary reflation had hoped.
Yesterday’s sensational cut has reduced interest rates in one fell swoop to the lowest since the 1950s. It means that, for the first time since the aftermath of Black Wednesday, Britain is paying less for its money than the eurozone. And, most importantly, it implies that the Bank will use to the full its freedom to keep cutting interest rates until economic recovery is assured.
The implication, given that our economy is even more dependent than America’s on housing and finance, is that British interest rates will indeed fall to the level that everyone agrees is now appropriate for the US economy – 1 per cent or perhaps even less.
The prospect that the Bank is willing to use its firepower to the utmost does not mean that the recession is suddenly over.
Indeed it has only just started. Unemployment will keep rising and house prices will keep falling for at least the next 12 months. And credit will remain hard to get and surprisingly expensive, as banks exploit low interest rates to boost their capital, rather than pass on to borrowers the full benefit of lower interest rates. However, over time, the profit opportunities presented by ultra-low interest rates will prove irresistible to borrowers and to lenders, and normal credit growth will revive. And the more boldly the Bank acts in cutting interest rates, the sooner normality will return.
Yesterday the Bank’s boldness exceeded all expectations. As a result, the nightmare of a deep and prolonged economic depression will remain just that – an imaginary horror, rather than a realistic prospect.
This, in turn, means that the Bank will recover its reputation for competence and deserve to retain its operational independence, which had served the country so well in the past decade but had begun to be challenged by responsible politicians in all parties after the debacle of Northern Rock. Even more importantly, the Bank’s willingness to set monetary policy in the national interest without worrying about the weakness of sterling in the past few months means that Britain will enjoy the full benefits of keeping its own floating currency, independent of the euro, while the continental countries bicker about their stability pact and the timidity of the European Central Bank.
All in all, a good day’s work for the Bank of England. And for Britain, a happy day indeed.
A BALANCING ACT
What are interest rates? Why does it they matter?
Official interest rates set a floor for the cost of borrowing money for consumers and businesses. This is the main tool for steering the economy, alongside government tax and spending
What target is used to set rates?
The Bank of England sets rates to try to keep consumer price inflation on track to stay as close to 2 per cent as possible over the following two years. Provided that it does so, the Bank will also set rates to help to secure stable economic growth
How do interest rates affect the pound?
Cuts in interest rates generally push the pound lower, although there can be exceptions. A cheaper pound helps to boost exports, but also makes imports more expensive, adding to inflation
Why is inflation no longer a problem?
Inflation has been a big headache for the Bank, reaching 16-year highs of more than 5 per cent. But it is now set to fall sharply as the recession means that businesses will not be able to make higher prices stick, workers will not be able to secure higher wages and tumbling demand for oil and commodities means that the cost of these is also plunging, further reducing price pressures
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The problem with the financial system is that it is based on just one factor 'Interest Rates". The system has failed us and destroyed the financial future of many of its citizens. Big deal about recovery. A recovery is too late for many.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
On the other hand, there is a vague possibility (to BJD in particular), that the Governmenst who embrace the largest cuts will re-emerge from the recession earlier than the ones who don't. Same may be said for the strength of the GB Pound in the next year - it may become stronger as a result.
TimS, Malaga, Spain
the road to recovery will be a long & painstaking one. Sustained monetary expansion will have to be supplemented by periodic astute doses of fiscal stimulus targeted effectively to generate maximum multiplier effects.
dr sagar saha, oxford, uk
Another big thank you to Mervyn. A (rare) man of integrity and sound judgement when it really matters.
I hope the gentleman on the MPC who was calling for interest rates to be increased only 3 months ago will quietly resign his position. His lack of economic understanding was truly jaw dropping.
Alistair Nicholls, Manchester, UK
Colin of Shrewsbury; you are so right. Those of us who have a lot of savings for our old age will now see the value of our capital decreasing especially when the interest amount paid is lowered and then the interest balance paid is still assessed for income tax as well.
B J Deller, Marbella, Spain
Yes, Anatole and we are earning less for our money too.
Paul, Coventry,
deflation, at least of house prices, is the only hope for the multitude excluded from home ownership by the happy days approach to house price inflation.
David Giles, southampton,
There you go. DEBT IS KING.
No rewards and thrift - rewards only the the feckless and irresponsible.
Glad I left the UK. I would hate to be in UK on judgement day when this debt needs to be paid back.
Gareth Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany
Stupid, stupid, stupid. This way is to reward spendthrifts while those of us with savings are punished. I am going to withdraw my savings from my UK bank and put it into commodities.
Barquentine, Solihull,
And for those of us who were financially temperate, who did not overstretch ourselves, who saved for pensions and saved in general, we have our pensions savaged and our saving hits.
What is the lesson in this? Spend, spend, spend, and the government will pick up the pieces, it would seem.
Jeremy Poynton, Frome, United Kingdom
Why on earth is someone from another country volunteering for Barack Obama's campaign?
No matter how legal it is, there is something just not quite right about that.
Mike, California, USA
As Milton Friedman said .... deflation can be fought against by "dropping money out of a helicopter" ! ... and so we must.
Paul, Ashford, UK
Sorry, but looking at the UK from abroad cheering for cheaper debt only further demonstrates what a bankrupt country Britain has become. No savings and lots of debt does not make you rich, it makes you poor. Continuing the illusion of a "feel good" factor based on spending borrowed £ if disastrous.
KR, Cap Ferrat, FRANCE
the interest rate to aid recovery of the economy is only good as long as it is not left too low for too long (which was the failure after dotcom bubble, this rate should be rising again within a year, as to savers, if this averts a deeper recession now would be a good time to purchase shares?
Ben, folkestone , uk
Does anyone know when we will finally benefit from this?!Surely further regulations have to be put in place to force the banks actually help their customers?! How can the two companies which have been bailed out this year state that the reduction in rate will not be passed on to their customers?
Matthew Patterson, Oldham, England.
Sorry, but out here in the real world there are many SAVERS. The most likely scenario is that Labour will first destroy returns on savings (as it has now done - I can't see a net return of more tban 1.5%) and then let inflation rip, thus slicing great chunks off their value. Why is this good?
Colin, shrewsbury,
The cut is great news for small businesses and workers with mortgages. Rates need to go even lower yet to make sure we dont massive unemployment. The government has to do its bit by delaying leglislation that adds costs to business such as the extra holiday allowance.
Andrew Piercy, London, UK
You can not simply manage an economy with monetary policies alone. Monetary policy should go hand in hand with fiscal policy inorder to achieve the right balance for the economy. The risks here will be like trying to fly an airplane using the engines alone for flight control. This not sustainable.
Riyad Al-Alawi, London, England
So will this "cheap money" be used to invest in productive capital, securing higher growth in the future, or will it mostly be used to buy imported goods and to inflate non productive assets like housing? Based on the direction of the UK economy over the last few years I fear it will be the latter.
Ted, London, UK
The MPC should have been ahead of the curve & started much earlier to look beyond backward-looking inflation data. Remember the pound was at $2 in Jan so it has plunged anyway. The damage done is not so easily remedied with this late 'panic' move. Reputation for competence is not so easily won back.
Robert Cookson, Milton Keynes, UK
Err...Japan has had a low interest policy for years. That has not helped that country, so why will this when the UK does not even have the benefit of their huge saving base.
Carl, Paphos , Cyprus
Won't lower base rates prove problematic for this (prudent ) government when trying to borrow to see us through the coming downturn (because they didn't save enough through the boom times) Or am I missing something?
Roger S., Yateley, UK
What? WHAT?!??!? 1% interest rates are a good thing?!?! Have you forgotten HOW we got to this situation in the first place? US interest rates of 1% following the dotcom bubble and a craze for accruing debt. This is insanity - we are building the foundations of another boom and bust. For god's sake!
Kim, London,
Happy days? We always hear the pundits rejoicing when rates are cut. It may be a great day for borrowers, but what about those of us who live on a pension and thus depend upon a reasonable return on our savings? Spending good, saving bad?
bwhitjo, Hurstpierpoint, GB
Medicine is most efficacious when the dosage is taken as prescribed. The cut must be implemented in full. I'm baffled as to how the bankers can get away with creaming off gigantic sums for themselves. Is no prosecution of a central banker possible?
Tom Melbourne, London, UK
Over-spending is rewarded, deferred gratification is penalised. This lesson will not fail to be learned and will promote all the worst excesses of western democracies.
Rob, Reading, UK
Sorry Anatole but as a saver I am already sensationally depressed.
Would you please advise on the impact of record levels of liquidity combined with record loosening of monetary policy and potentially record levels of fiscal stimulus. Is it an 18 month mini boom and then total meltdown?
Mark, Launceston, UK
Trust in Kaletsky's opinion is problematical - I seem to remember his opining in favour of British adoption of the euro, now he's celebrating our monetary independence. And in the general deploring of low levels of saving, just how does he propose enticing savers - with such derisory rates?
alex, seattle, usa
I fear that (yet again) your predictions of light at the end of the tunnel will prove to be premature. I think you are greatly underestimating the severity and duration of the economic down turn.
carlos iradier, barcelona, spain
No one has ever explained to me why the Euro is a good idea. America is a big single currency zone but it seems to me the adjusting mechanism between states is the wlllingess of people to relocate, I wouldn't have thought Europeans wanted that.
Geoffrey, Sydney,
The pound will be pushed lower, savers will be punished, more debt on top of the already too much debt will be stimulated, new bubbles driven by cheap money will come and Japan has proven that even a zero rate does not even help the economy. Happy days are here again?
Eric, NL, NL
We never got uninflationary Growth. Measurements were skewed and price of consumer durables with short life and lower quality replaced the better products of pre-nineties.
It is a travesty to claim the past 16 years as low inflationary and continue to feed the low interest addicts more cuts.
S Yogarajah, Harrow, UK
Interest rate cuts always lower the value of the pound and fuel inflation. Both put the pincer on the value of savings, with low returns in one direction and erosion of capital value from the other.
Rates were cut in the past because the economy was being held back. In a recession this will fail.
Edward Bancroft, Colchester,
They're pushing on a string, Anatole; they're pushing on a string.
Peter Adam, Chevy Chase, MD , USA
I am not an economist, but to suggest that there has been 16 years "uninflationary" growth when house prices in that time have increased several fold, is nonsense. Sterling is now going to take a sharp dive, and money is going to loosened up even more, eroding the value of savings and pensions.
Paul, Carlow, Ireland