David Wighton, Business and City Editor
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How can there be any doubt that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next week? Just look around. Collapsing banks, bankrupt retailers, frozen credit markets, rising unemployment, gloomy consumers, tumbling stock market and now manufacturers at their most pessimistic for 17 years.
Yet there is doubt. Even after yesterday’s grim news, it is by no means certain that the Bank will act. The reason is that the committee that sets interest rates has a simple task – to keep inflation at about 2 per cent. And it is not doing a very good job: it has kept rates high to try to slow the economy and restrain price increases. But inflation is still expected to top 5 per cent.
To announce a rate cut and then have to admit that inflation has risen to more than double the target would be tricky, at least in terms of presentation. And presentation is important for the Bank.
Since gaining its independence in 1997, the Bank has consigned to history Britain’s hopeless record of containing inflation. It will defend that hard-won reputation fiercely. This is not just a matter of pride. Expectations play a big role in inflation. If people think that the authorities are happy to let inflation rise, it probably will.
Inflation expectations are already worryingly high and the Bank may decide that cutting rates is too big a risk. But there are signs that many of the committee members think the bigger risk is of a severe economic downturn.
They could justify a cut on the ground that while inflation may keep rising for another couple of months it is then expected to fall quite quickly. Retailers’ costs may be rising fast, but with consumer spending very weak shops will struggle to pass on those higher costs.
There is little doubt that the Bank will cut rates this year. So why not do it now? For many people worried about their jobs, next month may be too late.
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The risk now is DEFLATION.
Many mortgages are linked to base rate so reductions will help avoid some repossessions.
But more important are corporate overdrafts, especially for small business.
michael Corby, london, uk
Lots of people realise that cutting interest rates by a few basis points won't make any discernable difference. It won't save people's jobs, it won't get house prices back to the "good old times".
Higher rates will actually make all our oil/gas/food CHEAPER - don't cut for political reasons!
Dave, London,
Printing huge amounts of money to stabilise the banking system is itself inflationary. Huge cashflows into Ireland for safety will depress Sterling and cause even more inflation.
The bottom line is that Gordon Brown sowed he seeds of this disaster over many years and we cannot escape it now.
J Jenkins, York,
It is low interest rates [relatively free money] that has caused the problems. Why do more of the same [insanity definition]
Interest rates will rise eventually one way or another if 'free' market rules prevail.
Howard, Georgetown, Cayman Islands
Priority should be given to keeping inflation down. Inflation is already too high, leading to pay disputes, which, in turn, will lead to rising unemployment - and it takes years to bring unemployment down again.
Henry Haslam, Taunton, UK
I thought that the LIBOR rate was the paralysing factor ?
Reducing consumer interest rates would simply increase inflation, where the poorest suffer most !
Increasing interest rates would help increase consumer saving
cap, london, UK
get real peter c, I think there are more of us out here worrying about paying the mortgage than have the LUXURY of having any SAVINGS!!
j morrison, east kilbride, scotland
hyper inflation???!!!!!!!!!! now there is a scary word..........
lifestyles, habits, etc etc etc everything will change and some things we took for granted may longer be there for some of us.................who knows where this is all going?
C. Kroustis, London, UK
Interest rates are going to have to rise not fall in the medium term. Why? Becuase public spending is so high, tax revenue is down so unless they cut spending they have to raise interest rates to attract capital to plug the difference. House prices down, bank losses even worse, credit tightens
Rupert, London, UK
no raise interest rates to encourage saving
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
I think hyperinflation is an option being considered by some now.
phil, London, UK
I only earn interest my house is paid for what did rising interest rates do to my spending I had more money. The only thing that has affected everyone is Oil that's what is driving this recession but governments are hooked in deep on tax revenues no one is saying a thing.
James , Shenzhen , China
Recession or high inflation? Both are very difficult to stop once they take hold. Either choice is very damaging. It's a bit like asking if you want to die of cancer or a heart attack!
Pedro, London, UK