Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
Over 900 restaurants nationwide. Find your nearest now

The longest period of uninterrupted economic growth in British history has ended, leaving the country on the brink of recession.
Almost two decades of increasing employment, disposable income and house prices ground to a halt in June, official figures showed yesterday.
After 16 years, or 63 consecutive quarters, of continuous growth it is likely that Britain is already in recession, City analysts say. Another downgrade in a month’s time could confirm that the economy has shrunk.
The latest data, from the Office for National Statistics, showed a slump in every part of the economy as the credit crunch and the rising cost of living took their toll.
The economic standstill in the second quarter of the year came after a revision of figures wiped out the meagre 0.2 per cent growth reported earlier. It is the lowest reading since 1992, when the country was in the throes of the last recession.
In a symptom of how people are struggling to make ends meet, it has emerged that Asda is now regularly seeing a sharp fall in sales in the third week of the month as people run out of cash before pay day. The supermarket said that it was offering its biggest price cuts to coincide with this time.
The danger of tougher times ahead was emphasised last night by Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, who said that the global economy was being shaken by a “gale force” storm. The world faced “one of the most challenging economic environments in memory”, he said.
The new figures showed that spending by consumers dropped in the second quarter by 0.1 per cent — the first fall for three years — as families struggled with relentless rises in food and fuel bills.
Alarm among businesses that deepening economic woes will undercut demand for their products and services also hit growth. Investment spending fell by 5.3 per cent as unsold goods piled up on companies’ shelves. The construction industries were hit too, as the housing slump led to an increase in abandoned homebuilding projects, and caused Britain’s building sector to shrink by 1.1 per cent.
There was no relief in manufacturing, which some experts had hoped might take up the slack from the weakness in the rest of the economy. Factory output tumbled by 0.8 per cent between April and June, despite the boost to exports from the sharp slide in the pound.
The vast services sector — spanning businesses from hotels and restaurants to accountants, lawyers and architects — did manage to eke out growth of 0.2 per cent but this was its weakest showing for more than 12 years. The frailty of services, the driving force for the economy, was widespread. Battered by the credit crunch, the City and financial industries were hit especially hard, shrinking by 2.8 per cent.
City economists said that but for overseas trade, which was boosted by a fall
in foreign imports, the economy would have already been confirmed as in
recession in the second quarter, with domestic demand falling over the first
half of the year.
Ross Walker, of Royal Bank of Scotland, said: “There were no positives in
these data – a collapse in investment, a contraction in household demand and
a fall in exports.”
Jonathan Loynes, of Capital Economics consultants, said: “The UK looks almost
certain to head into recession in the coming quarters. Things will be
considerably worse in 2009.”
News that the economy is stagnating will increase the pressure on Gordon
Brown. Last week Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, sounded a
warning that Britain faced “a difficult and painful adjustment” throughout
next year.
The Prime Minister and Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, are expected to go on
the offensive next month and unveil measures aimed at easing the financial
stress on families and businesses. However, with their scope to shore up the
economy hemmed in by the dire state of government finances, Mr Brown and the
Chancellor will be pinning their hopes on the chance of a cut in interest
rates before the end of the year. Economists said yesterday that the chances
of an eventual reduction in rates before Christmas had risen after
yesterday’s bleak news.
Opposition parties seized on the standstill in the economy to taunt Mr Brown
with charges of abject failure. George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, said:
“For years Gordon Brown has boasted of consecutive quarters of economic
growth. Now economic growth has ground to a halt and Brown’s bubble has
burst.”
Vincent Cable, the Liberal Democrats’ Treasury spokesman, said: “We are now
seeing the full extent of the self-delusion which led ministers to believe
that everything was well with the British economy.”
The standstill now gripping Britain finally brings down the curtain on a
record winning streak for the economy since 1992. It brings an end to the
boom time that Mr Brown boasted was the country’s longest stretch of
unchecked growth for two centuries. Over 16 years, Britons have seen their
house prices almost treble, unemployment tumble to its lowest level in
generations and living standards soar. Incomes have risen by more than a
quarter, fuelling a high street boom in which consumer spending surged by an
average of 3 per cent a year.
The moment your toes touch the sand and your gaze meets water, you know you’re in the Bahamas.
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2005 / 55
£59,500
Great car insurance deals online
Circa £60,000
The Army Benevolent Fund
London
C£100K+
Chronophage
Isle of Man
12-15 days a year, c £12K
Springboard
London
£Competitive
American Airlines
Heathrow, London
Great Investment, River Views
One and Two Bed Apartments
Wandsworth Town
Times Online Property Search will help you Find It
like nothing on Earth!
.
Must end 28 Feb 2009!
Save up to 25%
Amazing Far East Offers
Visit Malaysia from £755pp
Great travel insurance deals online
.
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
The upshot is this price correction and subsequent panic by banks and energy companies have all created a situation far worse than it should be, Everyone trying to evade the responsibility of shouldering the cost, gov't, big business and shareholders should suffer too, thus safeguarding some jobs!
BJ, Kent, UK
James of Canada you forgot the other occupations in the UK - cell phone vendor, life insurance fraudster, violent criminal or victim - i think we are all glad to be out
pw, san francisco, USA
ahhh ..so this is the 'bust bit.' Gordon your views please after all "no more boom and bust?" and Inflation only 5% what a joke. It's time for the spin to stop and Brown to be straight with the British people. How bad does it have to get befoe that happens.
Mike, Bath, uk
Prices rising at double and triple the rate of wages means that people have less money to spend in real terms. Result people spend less and sales plummet. Work it out Sherlock. What do you expect from a system based on the anarchy of market forces?
Karl Marx, Highgate Cemetery, England
And if you should have any savings, they will become worthless as inflation outstrips interest rates (for those of you wanting cheaper credit). We are already close to that stage. Nice one, Gordon.
Marcher baron, Welsh Marches,
"Over 16 years, Britons have seen their house prices almost treble, unemployment tumble to its lowest level in generations and living standards soar. Incomes have risen by more than a quarter..."
Well - there lies the biggest reason for our woes! Absurd house prices unmatched by income levels.
Pippa, Yeovil, UK
I escaped to Canada five years ago, sensing that Britain's era of new prosperity was illusory. (Also, being an engineer rather than a landlord or an estate agent, I liked the idea of being paid a decent salary for meaningful work rather than shysterism). It's grimly fascinating watching from afar.
James Dryer, Toronto, Canada
Mac, Manchester, UK The very reverse is true. It's the BOEs fault for keeping interest rates much too low for much too long and the last 3 reductions. This has discouraged saving and encouraged borrowing and indebtedness up to the neck and raging inflation of essential goods, food and energy.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
If only we had joined the euro when we had the golden opportunity... now we only have years ahead on the sidelines.
Thanks Gordon McBrown for nothing!
Peter GODDARD, Epsom, England, EU
Wow, what a surprise for all those that bought the 'New Labour' pitch, that they now find themselves back where Wilson and Callaghan left off.
Anybody recall a single period when a Labour government actually improved our country?
Alf Thurgrate, Runnymede,
Abdull:
Paraphrasing (or maybe even quoting) the wonderfully dry J.K. Galbraith,
"Economics was invented in order to make astrology look respectable."
Good luck with your studies. Oh, and read Galbraith's entertaining take on the '29 Crash if you haven't already. This looks horribly like a re-run.
David S, Brighton, United Kingdom
..."those in higher places do something about this"?
Godness Gracious!, when are we going to finally let it click in?
There will be no returning to good times...ever. The dream is over. We've wasted in uselees gadgets and gas over one half of the worlds energy reserves. No oil, no riches; period.
Zeev Reuteman, Oxford, U. K.
I find it amazing that so many experts jump out of the cupboard with their retrospect eyes glowing with righteous indignation. You were all delighted to see your house prices rise yet none of you thought to say " hang on a minute this cannot be right".
Bernard Naish, Swindon, England
Don't worry, Gordon and his good friend George are planning a great big war with Russia to take your minds off the economy. It is a well recognised solution for failing governments!
Ian , Brisbane, Australia
Abdull, I doubt if you do. Look at most of the economists around. They know little. Of course one could also speak of the modern students and their inflated grades as well....
Austin Tassletine , South West , UK
Importing foreign nationals as cheap labour at a time when we havwe millions unemployed has played it's part too, it's just that only the less well off are footing the bill as usual.
Clive Burghard, Lancing, ENGLAND
No John, I wasn't trying to suggest that I have some special authority but maybe as a second yr economics undergraduate at UCL who is currently on 2:1 there's a small chance that I know what I'm on about. Besides your missing the point, this so called growth based on the fake economy has unravelled
Abdull, Newham, London, UK
"I was a student of electronics, once. I still can't fix a telly!"
I used to fix TV`s, but due to ever cheaper imports, I gave up that particular ("green") activity.
I can`t be bothered to rant on about how our debt based economy was always going to hit the buffers.
And finally, it has.
Andrew, Birmingham, UK
At the end of the day Gordon "Prudence" Brown has turned out to be as useless as his predecessor "Phoney" Tony Blair.
If UK PLC were a major company then it's HR department would be in deep trouble for hireing this sort of senior manager.
W D Toulman, WALKINGTON East Yorkshire, United Kingdom
"as families struggled with relentless rises in food and fuel"
Why do the press always only mention families struggling? What about single people who don't have anyone to share the cost of living with? Having to meet increased mortgage costs, gas bills etc is more of a struggle when on your own!
Hayley, Cambs, UK
16 years of economic growth??
I've got a bridge I could sell you.
Deduct the equity withdrawals from increasing house values, and the GDP for the entire broon years comes to 1% IN TOTAL.
In short, a gigantic con from a brazen liar.
eric mansfield, sheffield, ue
Oil and gold are heading for a rise in September! The dollar will correspondingly tank south.
Hold tight.
John, London,
"As an economist student ..."
Is this supposed to impart you with some sort of authority?
I was a student of electronics, once. I still can't fix a telly!
John, London,
I hope that Mister SARKOSY reads your newspaper, him who said that your economy is a model for the French people during his last visit in England.
SCHEFFER, pointe à pitre , guadeloupe
Brown took all the credit when times were good - although he had little to do with it, it was the booming world economy; but will he now take responsibility for the current situation? Doubt it...
you can't have it both ways Gordon.
richard, Coventry,
All economies run in cycles. Gordon Brown thought he could buck the trend. He hadnt learnt that 'the trend is your friend'. As a Minister's son he didnt take heed of the story in the Bible when Eqypt had ten years of plenty and ten years of drought. Clever guys those that wrote the Bible!!
Louis, Liverpool, UK
Tina Germany. You are correct. For Brown to claim that Britain has seen 15 years of solid growth is a total lie. Much of that growth was built on debt. Now the piper must be paid. People have lived for far too long above their means in the false hope that rising house prices would somehow save them.
john smith, Leeds,
I never had any time for Blair - but, I`ll give him his due. He timed his exit ABSOLUTELY to perfection.
Laughing his socks off jetting around the world, carefree, whilst all the ire is concentrated on the man who caused him so much trouble from No. 11 and thankful that people have short memories..
Rick O`Shea, UK,
Brink of recession? slump? ..whatever you call it--everybody knows about it and is already effected. It is about time that those in higher places who keep warning faced up to it and did something about it, especially those in government, plus those involved in the Bank of England. Why wait?
WILLIAM GRIERSON, KIMPTON, UK
A lot of us haven't experienced a growth in income over the past few years - even before the 'credit crunch' we were getting poorer by the day as the real cost of living overtook earnings. Most spending on the hight street as been 'borrowed money' and helped paint a FALSE picture of prosperity.
michael j kay, northwich, england
Mac in Manchester, so it is the BoE's fault for not dropping the base rate further to encourage even deeper levels of debt? If the BoE had not held the base rate artificially low for so long then those levels of debt would not have been accumulated. That is the *real* cause of this recession.
Paul, Coventry,
My outgoings are mainly diesel, food, gas and electricity. I dare say that many other families are the same.
However the inflation on these items averages around 25%, not 4%.
If the basic items are subject to soaring inflation, you don't even need to be on the breadline to start running out of money
AC, London,
Government needs to step back out of our lives and tax less. It's not soaring fuel, food, energy or mortgage prices but the tax I pay which inhibits my lifestyle. Every little extra Brown took out of the economy when times were "good" (NI increases, fuel tax hikes etc.etc.) should now be given back.
Wes, London,
You report, ingenuously, that unemployment is low and living standards high. That overlooks government efforts to falsify figures for unemployment, inflation, educational standards, and much else. Many who cannot find work are no longer registered as unemployed. True inflation is way higher than 4%.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
The only reason Britain had a boom was because people spent more money than they had and saved not one penny.
Now that the banks are cutting down on credit, consumers find they cannot maintain their extravagant lifestyle.
Tina Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany
As an economist student I can dispel the ludicrous comment that we are in a recession because of Russia. Firstly it is always difficult to attribute a recession to just one factor, but perhaps is the most significant reason is the greed of the banking system, influenced by record bonuses
Abdull, Newham, London, UK
If the Peak Oil theorists are right this is just the start. The production of oil is going to halve in less than ten years causing global economic meltdown. This is not Russia's fault as Kenneth would like to believe but a consequence of the finite amount of easily obtainable oil in the ground.
kevin, Lincoln, UK
Finally people are seeing the emperor really wasn't wearing any clothes.
Gordon just rode a wave while claiming credit watch him squirm when the blame hits.
Mitch, Wolverhampton, England
After 16 years of economic growth - that's 5 years under the Tories and 11 years of Labour. And at the end of that period, Labour has increased taxes (particularly stealth taxes); spent everything, borrowed even more & left us broke. Nothing in the kitty for a 'rainy day.' Gordon really is a moron.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
As a 'outsider' looking in...It's you horrible TAX structure...VAT here,stamp tax there, parking tax,road tax, airport tax, a regular EEE,iii,EEE,iii,ooo TAX state...enjoy....you bought it...thank the LIBS...Housing...97.8% in USofA are on time payers...always have 2% dead-beats...
Mr Tim, san marcos, U S of A
We are heading for the biggest downturn since the thirtys and Russia I think has a lot to do with it.
Now they are no longer communist they have great economic power - the oil price hike is shredding the western economies - its not just the american sub prime debacle - thats only half the story !!
Kenneth Brunning, Cambridge, United Kingdom
hmmm ... so Asda are reporting that the average consumer can no longer afford their usual foodstuffs three weeks after payday .... how long until the average consumer starts to default on life's less essentials?! Perhaps Vorderman can help with a consolidated affordable monthly instalment
Paul, London, UK
everything theyve done since theyve been in power has been designed to slowely erode the reforms the tories made in the 80s. tax is massively up, the state has massively expanded, the unions are on the march striking at the drop of a hat. has cameron got the fruit to be a capitalist?
will, grimsby, uk
The boom was built on debt, lots of it.
Now its payback time.
A Harris, Kettering, UK
The government is powerless. Creating further easy money isn't the answer. The wages and living standards of Asia and the West will converge, theirs will go up and ours will go down. You do like cheap supermarket goods...right? Time to pay for sweat shop wages...with jobs+disposable income levels.
Barry, Magherafelt, Northern Ireland
Its the banks fault this is happening...
and it is the governments fault for not regulating the banks well...
Bhavin Vaja, Cheltenham, UK
Great timing Gordon,pledging millions of pounds worth of support for the Afghan Army.The man's so out of touch I think he'll honestly be baffled when Labour are wiped out at the next General Election.
Dave, Plymouth,
Boom years? You mean the booming trade deficit, the booming household debt level and the boom in house prices!! That was no boom. That was economic lunacy!
Scamp, Aberdeenshire,
It's the Bank of England's fault for not cutting interest rates more aggressively. They have "fiddled while Rome burnt"... metaphorically speaking
Mac, Manchester, UK
surely this goverment should have acted sooner and be
more prepared for the downturn in the economy afterall
they have all the statistical data and indicators as to what
the economy might be up to
I am afraid i too have lost faith with Mr Brown.
Roberto, Hove,