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BUSINESS has urged the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold at 5% this week and be ready to cut them in the coming months to head off a recession.
After a week of bleak economic news, pressure on the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC), which meets this week, is intensifying. The outlook is more worrying than at any time in the Bank’s 11 years of independence.
“For the moment the Bank should keep rates on hold. The slowing economy and wage moderation should help to prevent inflation,” said Steve Radley, chief economist at the Engineering Employers’ Federation. “However, if the economic downturn continues to gather pace it must be ready and willing to cut rates once again.”
David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce, agreed. “The MPC cannot disregard these worsening threats to growth,” he said. An interest-rate hike on Thursday — the European Central Bank increased rates last week to 4.25% — would be “devastating,” said Kern.
MPC members will have to weigh inflationary pressures — especially rising energy costs — against firm evidence of a sharp drop in consumer spending.
The slump is putting huge pressure on retailers. On Friday, John Lewis became the latest to report falling sales, down 8% at end June. Sales of big-ticket items — electricals and household goods — dropped sharply. Earlier in the week Marks & Spencer reported an unexpected drop in sales, sending its shares plummeting.
The FTSE General Retailers index — which tracks the share prices of quoted retail groups — has now fallen by 55% in the past year, and is at its lowest level since 1991.
Analysis for The Sunday Times by Company Watch, an independent research group, shows that 45% of quoted retailers are under financial pressure. Three years ago the proportion was only 27%.
Company Watch scores firms’ strength out of 100 by monitoring key financial ratios. If a company’s score falls below 25 it is judged to be in the “warning” zone. Of the 60 quoted retailers checked, 27 now have scores below 25.
“Any sector will have about one-quarter of companies under 25 at any one time. But this is a high proportion. Experience tells us that six or seven of these retailers will be in financial difficulties over the next few years,” said Company Watch’s Guenter Steinitz.
Car retailers, which have been particularly hard hit, are calling for the government to think again on vehicle-excise duty changes that penalise the owners of larger cars.
“Ministers have said they will reconsider the duty, but they should have just scrapped it. Saying they will think about it is ridiculous because it leaves it hanging over people’s heads and adds to consumer gloom,” said Trevor Finn, chief executive of Pendragon, the UK’s largest car retailer.
Estate agents are suffering from a fall in house sales, with many facing closure. Forecasts from Numis Securities suggest one in five high-street estate agencies will close this year.
The “shadow” MPC, which meets under the auspices of the Institute of Economic Affairs, calls for interest rates to be kept on hold this week, with eight of its members recommending no change and one, Patrick Minford, urging a quarter-point cut.
Despite the prospect of a further significant rise in inflation, six of the eight members had a “bias” to cut.
“The real economy looks seriously weak and the outlook for the housing market looks dire,” said Roger Bootle at Deloitte.
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We must control inflation, forget slower growth that will come back as soon as we have inflation under control. The problem is that oil and food inflation is largely out of our control as we are importing inflation from China. You are all correct in saying we should have joined the euro
john, bath,
We can be fooled some of the time but the world cannot be fooled all the time, basic principals will prevail. Value of paper has lost value as governments have the licence to print money.Hold 10% gold
Jeff, Larnaca, Cyprus
Because its size, USA Fed rates is responsible for skyrocketing inflation. The times are changing, future leadership will be in "savings-oriented" Asia. Maintain strong USD, strong GBP and strong EURO is only way for western countries to compete in years to come.
Jutharat, Bangkok, Thailand
Stronger pound = lower inflation? your kidding yourselves, inflation is on the up regardless of interest rates, as Merve has said. Its a new world with new problems, the old methods of fiddling with rates are no longer affective as the last two years have shown. I prefer a job and a home thanks
kevin, sleaford,
Carol - how does keeping rates the same or increasing them (the alternatives to lowering) contain or reduce the imported inflation in the form or higher food and oil prices?
jon, acton, uk
Many talk of increasing rates to support the Pound and drive down inflation, but raising rates when the economy is weak would undermine confidence, send the Pound lower, and weaken the economy further. Raising rates now is not an option.
John Lewis, London, UK
Richard of Horley:
Inflation occurs when when credit is made cheaper. That's how raising interest rates controls inflation. The Bank's rate has become uncoupled from LIBOR, so at present lowering BoE rates has a limited trickle down effect. And why should savers be penalized? We need them.
A Solovine, Bracknell, Berkshire
If the BoE are weak on inflation, sterling will depreciate & exacerbate the inflationary problem. Money will flee sterling & lead to a sterling crisis.
Forget growth, expecially the sort of consumer lead growth that is unsustainable, otherwise the astronomers 'Big Bang' theory will arrive here!
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
The ECB has demonstrated credibility, the BoE is tending towards discrediting itself - a rise sends a clear message - inflation is serious and will be dealt with. The US Fed - the less said the better - no crediblity left
Richard, Newton Abbot,
Inflation will come back under control once the speculation in commodities subsides and the credit crunch works through the system. Raise rates now and you'll precipitate a longer, deeper recession than we're already entering. Hold this month and cut twice before year end!
Gary Edwards, London, UK
As I have said several times the MPC is unlikely to raise rates at all even if inflation gets much worse. They are committed to reducing rates whenever possible, devaluing Sterling and in so doing trying to convince the population that the best answer will be to ditch Sterling and join the Euro.
chris, brighton,
At thispoint raising or lowering rates probably won't do much. Its all out of control and tinkering with rates will have marginal effects. People cannot pay whether at 5% 0r 25 %. Their assets are dissapearing down a hole.Jobs are going fast companies are losing money left right and center.Its over
Dave Ritchie, Mission B.C., Canada
Raise the interest rares monthly until the pound gets back to it's value against the euro a year ago.
M Wilson, Bidache, france
Rate increases may have reduced effectiveness in moderating exogenous inflationary pressures (commodities). BUT commodities are being used as defacto currencies precisely in order to maintain purchasing power as indebted economies look to cut in the face of inflation. To cut = more inflation
j barrows, newcastle, uk
Rates should only be lowered if and when deflation sets in, and only enough to stabilise the economy. It was the ridiculously low rates and the consequent gorging on debt that got us into this pickle in the first place. Asset prices must drop and that will not be achieved by lowering rates.
j barrows, newcastle, uk
Up or down doesn't matter in the long run. The excess in the system must be removed and that requires recession, not creative accounting.
The best any of us can do is make sure we protect against inflation which is running much higher than govt figures say. Better buy gold . .
Justin Thyme, Bangkok, Thailand
Raise interest rates and lower fuel tax. The BOE have tolerated above target cpi inflation for too long fueling real inflation in the process. If they do the former they will help the pound and lower everyones living costs and help the economy stabilise and recover.
James, NI, UK
If rates arent lowered surely that will put more pressure on manufacturers who will have to increase prices or damage profits ,consumers will then start to demand higher wage increases to keep pace and we will have imported the inflationary spiral that everyone is concerned about.
David Morton, Stourbridge, West Midlands
rates need to be at least 8%, this government sponsored bank funded by the tax payer is a complete farce, we are suffering because Brown wants votes...
Inflation is much higher than they say..
Rates need to go up to stem it..
I am fedup with financing the banks and bankrupt companies with my tax
mark, Chester, Cheshire,
Lee is correct, the malaise we now suffer from is the 'DEBT' malaise, the bankers threw away our tomorrows for their personal short term gains. Nothing will prevent what may well now become a Depression... Read Warren Brussets works....
R McAuley, Antrim, United Kingdom
To raise rates to control inflationary pressure would ignore the fact that increased rates are now adding to a stagflation. As the housing market slows this in turn means less high street sales. This leads to unemployment at a time of high fuel costs. Be brave and lower rates!
Ray , Milton Keynes,
Rates should rise as ECB and others will raise their rates due to inflation. A recession is coming whether we like it or not, its caused by the rise of oil and fuel due to finite resources. If we don't raise interest rates inflation will be worse and the recession worse.
Keith Sloan, Nr Winchester, UK
Do these so called experts from banks, the retail sector and estate agents really think we can have year on year growth forever with no chance of a slow down? The BOE must do its job and raise rates to lower the inflation rate, not the 3.3 we are told about but the real (much higher) one.
Lee, Portsmouth, England
Raise interest rates and cut fuel duty.
Reward the people who have been prudent and saved. Without their deposits where would the banks be now?
If rates don't go up every saver should withdraw their progressively devalued cash and see what happens to the banks.
Power to the savers.
Fred, Moray, Scotland
Lowering rates would simply fuel the inflation we already have. Hold them steady or raise them to encourage savings. Enough of this irresponsible, inflationary lowering of rates.
Carol, Derbyshire,
Once again someone trots out the 'windfall tax on oil companies' line. For anyone with a private pension plan this tax will hit the value of the shares that constitute part of their fund.
Much better to windfall tax the idiots that got us into this mess in the first place - greedy banks and property speculators.Instead of tapping into fat profits we are encourage to bail them out now there is a little pressure on property values.
Raise rates.
clint, liverpool,
Interest rates need to rise as sterling has lost a good deal of its value, meaning we are importing inflation. Perhaps we should start buying goods made here and take holidays in this country, to support our economy.
Nan, Reading, UK
We need high rates to encourage a strong pound Peter in Guilford. We do not need anymore low rates and spending (on yet more credit) out of the impending recession we face. The longer we live in this fallacy of debt running this economy the larger the eventual crash will be...
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK
i did not take out a mortgage 10 times my salary, i do not have credit card bills, i spend in my means, and so do many other people, we have suffered low interest rates for years, and savings were never encouraged because of the rates, why should we have to pay for the people who didnt care a dam
kay, london,
Agreed, rates should rise, or at least remain steady. The best course would be to cut fuel duty, which would moderate inflation. On the flipside, the exchequer could put a Windfall tax on the oil industry to make up the shortfall. At $145 a barrel they can afford it.
Geoff M, Barcelona, Spain
Absolute madness to cut the rate THREE times when the price of oil and other commodites were already at record highs and still rising! It was inevitable it will feed through to the MPC's main remit, inflation. Far more logical and sensible to have taken a 'wait and see' stance....
cww, suffolk,
A rate rise would be a good psychological signal of the Bank's willingness to be tough. It wouldn't have any adverse impact in reality as the banking system is semi-frozen whilst capital ratios are being re-built.
Eddie Reader, birmingham, england
Inflation is rising largely due to Oil. If the base rate rises now and hits 5.5% by the end of the year and Oil prices hit £200 a barrel then you're guaranteeing a recession not only in 2009 but well into 2010.
The BoE's job is to balance curbing inflation and ensuring a clear path to growth.
Mario, Cheshunt,
Everyone has been talking about raising rates to strengthen the pound, and reduce the costs of foreign import. I have a simpler solution - join the Euro!
This economy is doomed, whether we raise or cut rates. Why not swallow our pride, and make the only logical choice.
Dan M, bournemouth,
How exactly does raising interest rates control inflation when the inflationary pressure has nothing to do with consumer spending? By all means - power-dive into recession. As John Major said, "If it isn't hurting, it isn't working". As it happens, it didn;t work then and it won't now.
richard, horley,
Sterling has already depreciated more than 15% against the Euro in the last year, and this is increasing inflation. Important to have currency stability, so interest rates should be raised to combat inflation.
Peter, Guildford,
Absolutely Paul. The weakness of the Pound against the Euro is causing huge inflationary pressures. Rates must go up!
Edna Burbridge, Engreve, France
Push rates up to 15% lik in the good old days.
Duncan Mcmeeking, Nottingham, United Kingdom
Paul of Coventry is quite correct. Moreover, the BoE has already dislocated its base rate from that which is available for mortgages. The BoE needs to remember that its prime target is the control of inflation.
Control prices and the consumer confidence and spending will inevitably rise.
Edwin, Bucharest,
The BoE should follow the ECB with a rate rise. Sterling is so weak as it is that to even contemplate rate cuts anytime this year or next year would be foolish. Price inflation will run out of control if the BoE does not raise the base rate soon, at the very least back to where it was last autumn.
Paul, Coventry,