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There were fears yesterday that the Bank of England could raise interest rates after the European Central Bank issued a surprise warning that surging inflation could force it to lift eurozone rates as early as next month.
The ECB's abrupt move to a state of high alert over inflation stunned markets and triggered a scramble by the City to reassess the outlook for interest rates on both sides of the Channel. Both the Bank and the ECB held rates yesterday despite worsening economic prospects, spurning pleas for action to buoy growth as they continued their fight to quell rising inflation.
The hardline decision from the Bank came as the clamour for rate cuts was fuelled by news that Britain's housing slump was gathering pace. Figures from Halifax showed that house prices are plunging at twice the rate of the property market's drastic downturn in the early Nineties.
The Bank's tough verdict was widely expected after its clear signals that inflationary pressures ruled out rate cuts for several months, at least. However, markets were caught off guard by the ECB's sudden shift to a far more aggressive stance. A warning from Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the ECB, that eurozone rates could rise by next month ignited City betting that the Bank of England's next move might also be a rate increase. Markets are pricing in an 80 per cent chance that UK base rates will be increased by December.
Traders and economists said that they were stunned by Mr Trichet's warning. He said that the ECB had debated raising rates yesterday in response to inflation that had “risen significantly since the autumn of last year”. He implied that a potential quarter-point rise in eurozone rates could be expected at its next meeting.
The comments surprised bond markets, igniting fears over inflationary dangers. Inflation-sensitive gilt-edged stocks tumbled, sending their yields soaring to seven-month highs. The pound also fell sharply against the euro as traders bet on a eurozone rate rise. The euro jumped by almost a penny to 79.48p, within striking distance of the 80.98p record set in April.
The emerging threat that the Bank may raise base rates this year will cause worries for families that are struggling with the rising cost of living and declining house prices. These sank by a further 2.4 per cent last month, extending losses that have left them down by 6.6 per cent since January, wiping £13,000 off the value of the average home.
House Prices have fallen twice as fast in the past five months as in the same period in 1992, during the most recent property crash, when they fell by only 3.3 per cent, based on Halifax figures. The decline in prices this year is the biggest five-month fall since records began in 1991. If the deterioration in house prices continues at its present pace, the value of a home will slump by more in six months this year than in the whole of 1992, when prices fell by a total of 7.2 per cent. Some economists forecast that prices could fall by up to 12 per cent this year, followed by further declines next year.
The threat that a brutal housing crash could be more severe if the Bank raised rates is certain to sound alarm bells at the Treasury.
Bradford & Bingley will aggravate the pain today, when the troubled lender increases rates on all of its home-loan products, although it has not said by how much.
The grim news came as the Chancellor battled to fend off Conservative attacks over Britain's deepening economic plight. Alistair Darling was thrown on the defensive as George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, accused the Government of acting like a rabbit in the headlights. The Chancellor insisted, however, that the economy was strong and resilient.
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This country could have built up a Sovereign Wealth Fund just like Japan, Norway, Singapore et al from our gas/oil revenues. But no its all been spent and more by our unaccountable government so we now don't have any leverage to fend off inflationary pressures & to help the poor.
William Eagle , Odiham, Hants
Put interest rates up to ten percent.
Why should those whom were wise enough to save, instead of joining in the credit spending orgy suffer?
Britain is now finished-most of you cannot percieve it because of your inate sense of pride.
Finished,and bankrupt accounts wise.
antony Graham, southport, England
During tough times one hopes they have got the polticians in plave who canactually make the right decisions which means they have to have the right info at hand. Sounds like this lot are in denial!
David, Athens, Greece
It all depends how you measure inflation, Richard!!
Ian M Jones, Reading, UK
The weakness of the £ and the $ is the reason for higher oil prices and not the comments of the head of the ecb who has been an outstanding cental banker.
If people want cheaper oil then intrest rates will have to rise.
Britain has the outstanding record of holding one fith of the worlds debt.
bob, hants,
"The chancellor was thrown on the defensive when Osborne accused him of acting like a rabbit"
There is the real worry.
With all the problems we have that's the best the Tories could come up with as an opposition policy!
Gordon, SELL ENGLAND TO DUBAI! and then go on holiday!
john, woodbridge,
Surely, an increase in interest rates will add to inflation, not reduce it. It only means more profit for banks and more inflation for most people. That can't be right!
Richard McCoull, Reading, UK
Precisely what makes these people "experts"? Based on my qualification (sic) as an economics graduate, the monkey and the dartboard analogy seems highly relevant. The experts are simply the luckier monkeys. And when their luck runs dry, new monkeys will replace them and new gulls will listen to them
Billy Barnett, HK,
"Prices in London are never going to be cheap - the whole world wants to move into here."
Really? I don't think so Harvey. I'd rather live somewhere, warm, sunny, quiet and peaceful. And I do.
Jenny Tardram, Vilamoura, Algarve, Portugal
Why is it that when property prices casually increase by 20-30% a year we all seem to smugly take it in our stride but when property IN SOME AREAS only drops back a few miserable percent we think the World's come to an end?
Prices are absolutely absurd and have been fuelled by low int. rates.
Pedro Tam, London, UK
Supporting the housing market by trying to cut interest rates is ridiculous. Houses remain seriously overvalued and keeping them there is causing a lot of distress. Inflation will be a disaster if it returns and will destroy a lot of people's savings, clearly showing that saving is not worth it.
Colin, shrewsbury,
The price of oil has risen due to the release of US unemployment rates rocketing which has hit the dollar. It has nothing to do with this announcement.
Fred, Moray, Scotland
There has been in the past decade catastrophic hyperinflation in the property and services markets disasterously ignored by central ganks focussing only on the CPI: a wholly inadequate measure of inflation. This is the right direction, but far, far too late.
James E. Petts, Burnham, England
It might start off as international commodity inflation, but as these increased costs leach into the economy, then we will have domestically driven inflation. Extrapolate and Expomenta l- they are all words that are suitable for describing what will happen
David Nammory, Liverpool,
I'd rather have a single increase in my costs with a mortgage interest increase than see all my other costs increasing out of control via inflation.
Didn't someone liken inflation to toothpaste: you can't easily put it back in it's place?
Basil, Horley, UK
Bring on increased rates I say. Much better for my savings!
Mr J R Chinn, Winwick, England
Will this de-coup inflation expectations? Unlikely... Expect wage rise demands next and an eventual price-wage spiral (That 70's show)...
Sam Cooper, Wellington, New Zealand
I doubt many in the 'city' have been 'stunned' - many people have predicted what is likely to happen, it's just that no one wanted to believe them - truth is people dont know what is likely to happen in the future but it currently looks very bleak and Gordon should take a lot of the blame
Simon, lONDON,
Give us higher interest rates rather than higher inflation rates!While we have a bubble in oil/petrol and other energy costs,the European Central Bank is right to take this common sense appproach and warn about raising interest rates if inflationary pressures continue.
John, Isle of Wight, UK
How can the city so called "experts" be stunned? Look at Trichet's record. He is incredibly conservative and inflation not growth has always been his number one pririty. Look for the euro to reach parity with the
puny pound by year end .
rob, colchester , uk
To Chris in Bagshot - wonder if you'll regard it as a plunge when your '260k' house is worth '130k'. Give it two years.
A house is only worth what someone can borrow to pay for it. Take away, limit or make that borrowing more expensive and houses will return to a sensible salary multiple.
Hilary, Southall,
It seems that inflation is caused mainly by Energy prices which the general public have no control over. So how are we ever supposed to control it and keep interest rates down. Seems like a downward spiral regardless of 'High street spending'.Rates above 5% will be very difficult for most to survive
Billy Bop, London, UK
Laura, 'sold to them on the never never by unscrupulous 'advisers': this mentality of refusing personal responsibility and playing the blame game isn't a healthy trait for society to have. Caveat Emptor.
Tony, Maresfield,
The EC b has shot itself in the foot, look at the rise in oil prices already as a result, !!. true!.
jim, donegal, ireland
There has been continuous reporting that house prices are far too expensive and that they are not affordable. Now that prices are coming off these inflated levels this is being reported as if it is some sort of catastrophe. How can anybody in their right mind think interest rates should go down?
Ian, Chigwell, Essex
We urgently need a Govt of National Unity as the UK is headed for the biggest crisis economic crisis since the Great Depression. Urgent cuts in Public Spending & particularly the £1000bn of pension & PFI liabilities are required to prevent a sterling crisis. Otherwise its time to bail out of UK Plc!
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
I want inflation to be kept under control even if this means interest rates go up and property prices collapse. At least people will learn the truth about property prices and stop believing all the bull they hear in those tv property development programmes.
Charles, Birmingham,
Why continue to link a housing slump to BOE rates. It is the retail banks who are likely to cause a slump because they either won't lend, or don't pass on the reduction. BOE has to control inflation for all of us. The retail banks are just plain stupid, greedy, or both.
Jimd, Norwich, uk
The main concern is our govt does not understand the time delay effect with regards to rate changes.
Also base rate is pointless LIBOR is the real rate and the MPC/BOE under Mr Browns control are sitting on the fence.
Rates should rise by at least 2 % to balance out the economy we need action.
Jay , Manchester , uk
The city is stunned? perhaps it's because the ECB and the MPC have ignored its main remit, inflation for so long,that it realised that it cannot do so any longer...
cww, suffolk,
Any more interest rate hikes and we can no longer afford our house. Reasons: we're young, have average yet demanding jobs with low pay and didn't get on the housing market at the right time because we were in post-graduate education.
The economy is so wonderful.
Matt, Southampton, England
Thank goodness for one central bank taking its obligations seriously.
Bruce Robertson, Brighton, UK
Paul, Coventry,
Hyperinflation affecting the rest of us?
Tell that to the people of Zimbabwe!
Kevin Browne, Reading, Berkshire, England
'The comments surprised bond markets, igniting fears over inflationary dangers'.
Incapable of reading the european inflation figures for themselves? The economy is driven by incompetent investment analysts, reacting to each other in the same way as house buyers and sellers ...boom bounce boom etc
Richard Elliot, Lisbon, Portugal
Strange the story is mainly about the ECB's comments about inceasing interest rates to fight inflation but vertually all the comments ignore this and continue to babble about the UK housing market which is no longer an inflation worry.
Trichet's comments are an inflation worry lok at the markets.
Dave, Mold, Flintshire
I bet interest rates will need to hit 15 per cent to combat inflation. It will happen in fits and starts and in a panic, but the bank will have to get there. Iceland is already there. Real inflation is already there.
Bob Macdonald, London,
Lucky enough to own a house value currently 260,000. How is 13000 pound less value a 'plunge'????
chris, Bagshot, Surrey
To Harvey, London - what happens in the Chelsea bubble is hardly indicative of the wider economy. The problem is the Government and the consumers of the UK have borrowed far too much for far too long and now the bills have to be paid!
Richard, Kidderminster, England
We are buying a house in Devon and had to go to written final offers to secure it. On the other hand lots of properties remain unsold. Strange market at the moment. The house we are buying was sensibly, even slightly under priced (in our opinion). Property that is priced sensibly is still selling.
SB, Dartmouth, Devon
Prices in London are never going to be cheap - the whole world wants to move into here. Those dreaming of a 30%crash will be waiting for a very long time. Think about it: you're all hoping for a crash, so that you can rush to...buy! What do you think this will do to prices?
Harvey, London,
The city is shocked, These people get paid millions in bonuses and from what most communtators have said recently they cannot predict what is going to happen in the markets in the 1 hours time, I wish I could get paid millions for working in a big betting office.
Breton, Square Mile,
Laura please dont judge all advisers as being unscrupulous. I am an adviser and the first thing I do with with any client is identify how much their budget is each month which then dictates how much they can borrow. If they want to borrow unrealistic amounts I wont do the business.
Mark, Ipswich,
The City is now waking up to the reality of hyperinflation that is affecting the rest of us - and about time too.
Paul, Coventry,
There is a long, long way for house prices to fall before the excessive lending of the last 10 years is corrected and we are only at the start of the fall. I wish could afford a house for £150k let alone a house in Chelsea for a million.
Chris, Oxford,
Grim? About time. Young people will be able to enter the market at prices they can actually afford, rather than at 5x their joint income, sold to them on the never never by unscrupulous 'advisers'. Hurrah!
Laura Pelling, Twickenham, UK
The UK is simply 6-9 months behind the US in terms of the real estate bubble. The US bubble popped in March 07 and it took until Jan 08 for significantly lower prices to start being reflected in the statistical data. UK household debt and housing price increase are at least equal to the US.
Chris, New York, USA
Why is the City stunned?The country cannot keep spending boeeowed money?There is a £1.4 trillion debt mountain to sort out.The people who should be encouraged to spend are those who have money, and they will be hoping for higher interest rates in order to protect their savings.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Harvey
A 3 Bedroomed Flat in Kensington Hey.
Prices in Chelsea and Kensington have always been 5 or more times the national average, I would say wait a while and they most certainly will be < 1 Million, however if your looking you can obviously afford it so dont let me stop you !!!
Peter, Aldershot, UK
Trichet's comments certainly helped the inflation fight with a $5.00 jump in the oil price. He would have helped himself and the rest of the world if he had kept his mouth shut.
Dave, Mold, Flintshire
Bob
Health economy - Says who ?
Low unemployment - Agreed ( at this moment ) but employed doing what ?
Affordable cost of borrowing - Have you been in a coma for the last 6 months? The credit crunch is all about the fact that the borrowing we had was "Not Affordable".
Peter, Aldershot, UK
'brutal housing crash'? Rock on Tommy!
Graeme B, Oxford,
A brutal property price crash is exactly what we need, hyperinflation we must simply avoid. If we cut rates and the US raises them then we could easily see another 15% increase in fuel costs from rapid currency adjustments.
John P-T, Reigate,
Scaremongering appears to have had the desired effect however. Despite a healthy economy, low unemployment and affordable cost of borrowing, we appear to have managed the unique feat of talking ourselves into recession. Go the new media age...
Bob Smith, Melbourne,
Scaremongering of the highest order. We are currently looking for a 3-bedroom flat in Kensington & Chelsea and there's hardly anything below 1M with all the decent ones over 1.5M! Restaurants are bursting at the seams and pubs have never been busier.
Harvey, London,