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When George Soros says that the world is facing its worst financial crisis since the second world war, businessmen, politicians and the public pay attention. This, after all, is the man who famously made $1 billion betting against the pound in 1992.
The 77-year-old investor issued his dire warning at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week amid increasing volatility in the world financial markets, but before the huge losses at Société Générale had become public.
“The current crisis is not only the bust that follows the housing boom,” he said. “It’s basically the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit expansion.”
Now the party is grinding to a halt and the hangover will be a humdinger. “Credit expansion must now be followed by a period of contraction,” he claimed. “A recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable.” The effect was likely to be contagious and infect the whole globe. It was, he concluded, the “end of an era”.
So is the world poised on the edge of an abyss? Or is Soros too gloomy by half?
Not everyone believes that pain for the financial suits inevitably spells trouble for the wider world.
“Purely from the point of view of the financial markets, there is probably more turbulence on a wider scale than ever before,” said Professor Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics and a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.
“But you should not listen only to the anguish and pain of Wall Street. They are getting hammered. They are one of two sectors in the US that have expanded beyond sustainable levels: the financial sector and the housing sector. Both have to contract.
“But it is not yet Main Street. I don’t expect anything catastrophic.” There is still a chance, he believes, that the US will escape recession.
Others point out that western economies have weathered previous financial crises with remarkable resilience. “In 1987 on Black Monday stock markets fell about 20%,” said Gabriel Stein, a director of Lombard Street Research, a leading economic consultancy. “So [the present turmoil] is certainly not the biggest stock market fall. Looking back, we now know that 1987 was the buying opportunity of a lifetime.”
Though Stein agrees there are serious problems, especially in banking systems and credit markets, he remains sanguine about the ability of free economies to adjust and recover. They did so after the American savings and loan crisis of the 1980s, the Asian financial crisis of 1997-99 and the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000.
“George Soros is very much given to exaggeration. There will be problems. [But] the world economy will survive,” Stein said.
Other experts may not entirely buy the Soros vision, but they do increasingly believe that the US and UK economies are heading into storms.
“There’s a very high risk of recession in the UK and in the US, and the eurozone will see a sharp slowdown later this year,” warned David Owen, chief European economist at Dresdner Kleinwort bank. The big danger in the UK is the housing market. Experience shows that downturns in housing markets tend to last for years, he said, and the latest figures show mortgage approvals in Britain are down 40% on a year ago.
The stock markets are already in a volatile state. One day share prices plummet on fears of further financial woes and wider recession. The next they soar on the back of lower interest rates and hopes of escape. The reality is nobody is sure how bad things are.
“A lot depends on how serious the problems in the financial sector are,” said Roger Bootle, economic adviser to Deloitte. “Heaven knows what else is going to crawl out of the woodwork.
“It’s not just going to be confined to sub-prime mortgages. It’s going to be prime mortgages, nonmortgages, consumer debt, commercial property lending, corporate debt . . . people are going to be surprised.
“But that’s what happens when you get the unwinding of a massive asset boom simultaneously with a slowing economy.”
This unwinding of the financial boom will hit ordinary consumers, he says. The economy will slow and unemployment will rise. “But it will be modest - a couple of hundred thousand maybe - compared with what we have seen in the past.”
While individuals will feel the squeeze, greater shifts will take place on a global level. Through the turmoil, relative wealth and power are moving from West to East. “The crisis accelerates the shift in economic weight and power to the Gulf and to the East,” said Buiter. “The new moneybags, the sovereign wealth funds and others in the Far East and the Gulf are going to buy up large chunks of prime assets in the West.
“It will undoubtedly be accompanied by a shift in political and diplomatic power. The US will never again be what it was in 2000, or what it felt it was.”
So in that sense, maybe it is the end of an era.
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A FREE market will never again prevail. There must be state intervention and regulation for the sake of the subjects of the state who will be the victims of the greed of the speculators. Social Democracy or Socialism will prevail for the sake of the people.
Peter Horrocks, Rochdale, England
Western Australia - thought to be the stalwart of Australia's increasing & substantial world standing - is thought to be impervious to the present downfall, or potential freefall.
Why then is housing in the vibrant city of Perth (WA) and thewell planned suburbs beginning to feel a housing tremor?
Maggie D, Fremantle , Australia
Does anyone read the BIble anymore? My suggestion read the book of "Revelation"! You will find your answers in the Bible.
Jackie, Statesville, USA North Carolina
Where has the money gone? OK so there was a housing and spending bubble but the money has merely moved from one place to another. Money just doesnt vanish but moves about so when the natural equilibrium is re-established growth will be re-established. How long this will take depends on political factors and decisions by governments and Dr Strangelove charactors at the top. Is Soros telling the truth? Investors thrive on spreading rumors. We are being manipulated by a few powerfull greedy power mad political/private individuals. This looks like a conspiracy because the money and the means of production are still in the system but theres some kind of glitch. Have the money men turned the taps off so they can buy assets in a recession rather than lend money to people to buy more?
grant, brighton, UK
From my brazilian vantage point Soros put his money where his mouth is.
He is investing in farms. Big farms. Old fashioned but light years away from finantial markets.
Lindolfo R. Anders, Sao Paulo - SP, Brazil
George Soros, Joseph Steiglitz , Noam Chomsky , and Warren Buffett are all saying the same thing. The U.S. has overextended itself and relied on credit for it's ill begotten war. At this point Osama Bin Laden looks to win round 2 with a rather simple David and Goliath type scenario. Get the giant to overextend himself and fall off balance in the desert and get stuck. It happened to the Soviets and now GW Bush has fallen into the same trap. Everything the above mentioned gentleman mentioned before the war has now come to pass. Of course we should trust them. It's now time to prosecute the fools that lied us into the war in the first place.
chris, brunswick, georgia
Soros has also had a bit of success since the
"momentary high risk/high reward move in his youth." He's clocked in as one of the top 3 earning hedge fund managers for at least the last two or three years. I don't know, it seems to me that a guy who made a billion outplaying the Bank of England 25 years ago, yet is still sharp enough at 77 to outmaneuver the legions of twenty and thirty somethings in the hedge fund world might know something about currencies and the fortunes of states that issue them. Especially when you consider that he's written a book or two on detailing how he relied largely on political analysis to earn 30+ percent aunnual returns for 30 years at the Quantum fund.
What he's saying is what a lot of people are saying privately. The U.S has followed the path of many other hegemonic world powers through history. It's overextended itself and overspent itself to the brink of bankruptcy. It' s end game time, and we don't have much control over how it's played.
J R Farrelly, Lake City, FL, USA
Soros was very lucky in his momentary high risk/high reward move in his youth. However since his instant winnings, he has been far more conservative with investments of that bounty and far more liberal with his criticisms and predictions for the US.
Yes US influence will be more diluted as other states rise economically/politically; but, thatâs a good thing and is by design to expand and strengthen overall World markets and build lasting peace. Which is the only logical direction, all nations should work toward.
But there is still a long road to travel yet and those nations rising now will ebb and flow (and certainly more dramatically than the West) with all the challenges we will ALL face together in these global markets.
Richard, Ftl, Fl, USA
John Green of plymouth says US savings are at an all time low. Wrong I am afraid. The savings ratio, which measures the amount of post tax income that is not consumed may be (leaving aside some enromous distortions to do with tax) but savings themselves are close to an all time high. The US economy has $53 trillion of net assets. Even if you subtract the value of their property but keep the mortgage liability they have $32 trillion. This is more than the rest of the world combined. Now go figure as they say in the US (and evidently Devon)
Mark T, London,
To summarize, Wall Street & "The Politicians" in Washington, D.C., built the better mouse trap, and they are caught in the very trap, of their own design- The only problem is, the working class will be caught in a dragnet of monumentous proportions, and financial calamity, wrapped in an age of "Peak Oil" .... :-(
Thomas W. Scott, Apex, N.C.
It does indeed appear that the US' economic and political prowess is waning quickly due to its own excesses and lack of oversight. It's time to pay the piper and the average American will only then come to understand the true nature of indentured servitude. I just hope Chicken Little isn't right.
Robert, Calgary, AB
I was reading an article the other day and it stated that in the 1950s it took a $1.50 of debt to get a dollar in growth in the GDP. Today it takes $4.50 of debt to get the same dollar of GDP growth. If true, it sounds like the old "law of diminishing returns" to me. We will have to pump more and more dollars into the economy. Say goodby to the dollar, and lower interest rates.
Steve, Albany, NH
Soros is only reflecting warnings that have been echoed from the nineties. That it has taken so long is the only surprise. There is much pain ahead for everyone and time will reveal the truth. Most of us have spent beyond our means and the next generation will have to pick up the tab. It is our fault, yours and mine.
Rose Ley, Cobram, Victoria, Australia
Some value coming back into the markets and true housing values as well.Perhaps if our illustrious ex chancellor had not believed the hype that he had been touched with financial divinty he would of saved a few extra billion for the downturn and boosted public spending.
Unfortunately the coffers are empty but rather than admit his mistake he rather amusingly states" the economic cycle has been extended!!"
Soros has perhaps many a short position open and like Goldman Sacs their statements are not be trusted.
Andy waton, reading, uk
Have we got this right? 70% of the USA GDP comes from the consumer? The only way for the US to survive is if the mighty engine of consumerism cranks into action spending money it doesn't have?, 40% of Americans are maxed out on their cards?. Their savings are at an all time low!. Go figure
John Green, Plymouth, Devon
Given Soros' forays into politics in recent years (often of an extreme position) it is somewhat hard to take what he says seriously...even if there may be some truth in it. Who knows what his true motivations are?
Paul, Rochester, MN
House price bubbles come and go and are a sympton of something else in the economy, not the cause. This time round there's more than one cause for concern in the UK. We are seeing the bursting of a worldwide credit bubble, the end of the China factor that deflated the costs for a huge range on goods and strong rises in the international benchmark prices for fuel, materials and food. When you add to this the disaster of a rate cut last December, which has effectively added a 6% tariff on everything we import, with no balancing benefit to the wider economy in the form of corrsepondingly lower rates to borrowers.
It is not armageddon though but we should begin to realise that this time round it is going to be much more like 1973/74 than 1987 or 2000. How tough it will be here and how long it lasts will depend on the skill of our government. The present one does not inspire me with confidence on that front.
figurewizard, Petersfield, UK
all the shoes have yet to fall but we're not going back to the barter system = capital infusions were needed and maybe we'll need more but what's really needed is somekind of resolution trust to make a market in the cdo's = once they sart trading freely (after they've been broken down or whatever is needed to make them understandle there qill be buyers at some price and that price will stablelize = there is some leverage on the 200 billion of underlying potential loss but how much can there be? there;s a lot of debt besides mortgages but there's a lot of liquidity as well and so far it seems to be availabe = bottom line no new paradymes situation no worse than 1987 and other cisises
h c mark, wellesley, ma